The Directorate General of Health (DGS) warned at the end of August: “The dynamics of the [Covid-19] epidemic in France is exponential.
The number of new daily cases has indeed increased sharply for several weeks, leading the authorities to take many measures including the compulsory wearing of a mask.
This Friday, 8,975 new cases were identified in France.
On average, over the last seven days, the counter has reached 6,011 every 24 hours.
Compared to the population, this gives, for a million inhabitants, 92 new daily positive tests.
A figure that should however be put into perspective on a European scale: what about our German, Spanish, Italian and British neighbors?
First observation: France is far behind Spain.
Our neighbor on the other side of the Pyrenees deplores 172 new daily cases per 100,000 inhabitants on average over the last seven days, almost double the data recorded with us, according to the OurWorldInData platform which lists the data communicated by the health authorities of each country.
Italy offers assistance to France
On Friday, authorities in the Madrid region, the most affected in the country, also announced new restrictions in order to fight against the spread of the virus.
Private or terrace gatherings are now limited to 10 people and access to shops and amusement parks is restricted.
Far behind come the United Kingdom (23 new cases per million inhabitants every day), Italy (22), then Germany (14).
Our transalpine neighbors were however the first to drastically confine the population at the beginning of March, while France and the other European states were still waiting.
What a contrast with the aid offer made by Italy to France on Friday… "Italy's first reaction, when we see high figures in friendly countries, is to ask how we can help", said the head of Italian diplomacy Luigi Di Maio, expressing his "full solidarity with the people and the French government".
It is also interesting to relate this number of new cases to that of the tests carried out.
Because obviously, a country which tests its population more “risks” more than the others to count a high number of cases.
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With now more than a million tests carried out per week, or about 140,000 per day (2.2 per 1,000 inhabitants), France ranks second among the five largest Europeans, just behind the United Kingdom.
Germany, Spain and Italy follow.
As for the positivity rate during the sliding week, close to 4% in France, it is close to 10% in Spain.
It remains below the 1% mark in Germany and the United Kingdom and hovers around 2% in Italy.
Spain, the most bereaved country
But beware, warns epidemiologist Pascal Crépey, "the number of tests is not necessarily the only relevant indicator, because everything also depends on the population that will be tested".
"If we do random screening, it is not at all the same as if we mainly detect contact cases of positive individuals," says the teacher-researcher at the School of Advanced Studies in Public Health in Rennes.
Moreover, for the same number of tests on a similar group of individuals, the effectiveness of the strategy also depends on the time taken to obtain the results (which are longer in several places in France).
Fortunately, in France as with our neighbors, the intensive care services are very far from the saturation experienced in spring.
But the indicators are rising slightly, just like that of deaths, prompting strong vigilance.
For the moment, Spain is the one of the five countries which has been the most bereaved since the start of the pandemic.
Almost 30,000 people lost their lives there, or nearly 640 deaths per million inhabitants.
The United Kingdom, Italy, France and finally Germany follow.
Unless there is a second deadly wave of Covid-19, this ranking will not budge.