The coronavirus peaks in Rosario and Córdoba are dated: how many cases and deaths are expected

Pablo Sigal

09/20/2020 - 17:11

• Clarín.com

• Society

In recent days the curve of the coronavirus in

not only greater than that of the city of Buenos Aires, but this Saturday the record of the first one almost doubled that of the second.

This trend is deepening:

also had more cases than the Capital for the first time.

They are the two provinces that, due to the size of their populations, are becoming the new epicenter of the pandemic in Argentina.

The Covid crisis had in these latitudes, unlike other more decentralized countries, the format of a

.

The bomb first exploded in the AMBA and the splinters are now wreaking havoc in several cities in the Interior.

During the last days, the Interior went from representing 30 percent of the new cases of coronavirus to registering

While everything indicates that in the metropolitan area the curve

(in the City it is already a fact and in the Province it is imminent), in Santa Fe and Córdoba the number of cases is in

The unknown is how long they will continue to grow and how much these provinces will suffer the consequences of the coronavirus, both in number of cases and deaths.

The mathematician Daniel Gervini, professor of mathematics at the University of Wisconsin, United States, had already made forecasts about the behavior of the curve in the AMBA, with a high degree of adjustment to reality.

Now he analyzed what will happen

These results show that the most dense consequences of this disease will remain in force at least until the

The expert makes his calculations based on

that prevails in each city.

In Rosario, the R0 has remained

in recent months, comparable to those of the Federal Capital and the province of Buenos Aires.

Taking as a basis that the R0 of the last days,

, is maintained in the coming weeks, Gervini reached a series of conclusions.

Operation Detect in Rosario.

Photo: Santa Fe Ministry of Health

“The peak in Rosario would only be arriving

, with

.

This number of projected deaths, relatively low, is due to the fact that the current mortality rate is only

in Rosario, but this rate would surely increase if there were a health collapse ”, he explains.

Regarding Córdoba, he says the following: “R0 has been more erratic in recent months than in Rosario and in the AMBA, varying

.

This is probably due to the fact that the epidemic has not yet started strongly in the city and there is little data to estimate well the R0.

For this reason the projections are based on an R0 of 1.05, which is comparable to those of the AMBA and Rosario ”.

According to these calculations, the mathematician concludes that "the peak in Córdoba capital

, with

Gervini observes that “as the focus of the epidemic shifts from the Federal Capital and the Conurbano to the rest of the country, Rosario already sees a sustained rise in daily cases, while in Córdoba capital

.

As for the total accumulated cases, it is expected that Rosario will reach around

by the beginning of December, while in the city of Córdoba it will reach

by the beginning of January ”.

v 1.5

The four curves

Tap to explore the data

Source:

Infographic:

Currently, Santa Fe has

and Córdoba, about 18 thousand.

The numbers have skyrocketed in recent weeks.

It is enough to compare the number of infections that these districts had at the beginning of September to confirm it: 8,500 in Santa Fe and 8,900 in Córdoba.

In the first province the number of cases

, while in the second

This abrupt increase can also be seen through the

, from the University of Tres de Febrero, which measures

in a given territory.

Two weeks ago, in Santa Fe there was a contagion every

.

Now there is one every

.

In Córdoba for now the speed is lower, with one case registered every

Although a positive fact is that, after almost seven months of the pandemic in Argentina, the number of occupied intensive care beds has never reached

, in the cities where there were many cases together at once the health system

.

It has already happened in Jujuy and Salta.

Now the same thing is starting to happen in Rosario.

At the national level, the percentage of demand for ICUs remains at a controlled average of 60 percent, while that of the AMBA stands at 66 percent.

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