A woman with a mask rides a bicycle through the center of Seville at the beginning of September.PACO PUENTES / EL PAÍS
Life expectancy in Spain has grown almost uninterruptedly since 1975, the year from which the first records of the National Institute of Statistics (INE) date.
It has gone from 76.3 years for women and 70.56 for men to 86.22 for them and 80.87 for them in 2019. However, the trend has changed for 2020 due to the coronavirus.
According to INE projections, published this Tuesday, life expectancy in Spain falls in 2020 by 10 months among women (85.44) and by 11 months among men (80.01).
The difference in the fall in life expectancy between the sexes has a scientific basis: men die more because of the coronavirus, up to three times after the age of 70.
In its report, the INE assures that this fall is "temporary".
"This decline would recover in 2021," adds the statistical institute.
"These projections reflect in the short term the impact that the pandemic we are experiencing may have," considers Albert Esteve, director of the Center for Demographic Studies.
This is how the population in Spain has changed since 2009, by municipalities and districts
Graphs showing how the Spanish population has changed in the last 20 years
This drop in life expectancy stems from the large increase in deaths and the slight drop in births projected for 2020. The INE projects that 466,583 people will die in Spain in 2020, 51,513 more than in 2019. It is the highest growth in a single year since the first records of the INE on deaths, in 1980. To put the dimension of the pandemic into context, the year in which deaths had increased the most in the entire series was in 2015, when 26,738 more people died than the last year.
Since March, 53,500 more people have died than in the average of the previous four years, which is an excess of 27% over normal, according to the Daily Mortality Monitoring System (MoMo), of the Carlos III Health Institute.
Among its projections, the INE observes other effects of the coronavirus.
For example, a very important decrease both in the number of immigrants arriving in Spain and in residents who go to live in other countries.
Thus, while in 2019 748,759 people arrived and 297,368 left, in 2020 the INE estimates that 245,219 will come (half a million less) and 135,648 will emigrate (half of a year before).
Thus, if we subtract the number of immigrants from the number of emigrants, there is a migratory balance of 109,571 people, compared to 451,391 in 2019. The statistical institute estimates that the figures will be similar in 2021 and 2022.
Spain in 50 years
Beyond the short-term effect of the coronavirus on the Spanish population, the INE's projections serve to hypothesize about how it will be structured in the future.
According to these estimates, the population of Spain would reach 50.6 million people in 2070, compared to 47 million today.
“The progressive and uninterrupted increase in deaths, always higher than the number of births, would give rise to a negative vegetative balance throughout the projected period.
This negative vegetative balance would be exceeded by the positive migratory balance, which would cause a population increase during all the years of the projected period.
The increase in population would therefore be due exclusively to international migration ”, explains the INE.
The population born in Spain would go from representing 85% to 66.8% in 2070.
The number of births would continue to fall until 2027, in an invariable trend since 2009. Of course, the INE indicates that they could grow from 2028 thanks to the arrival of immigrants of childbearing age.
In addition, the population will continue to age: the percentage of the population aged 65 years and over, which currently stands at 19.6% of the total, would reach a maximum of 31.4% around 2050. Thereafter it would begin to decline , up 28.6% in 2070.
Esteve considers that the forecasts of the INE are "sensible", in line with the path of other western countries.
“The internal dynamics of deaths and births do not allow for population growth.
We are very aging, with few people of childbearing age and, among those people, few willing to have children.
Without international immigration, it is impossible for the population to grow ”, adds the demographic expert, not without qualifying that migratory movements are“ the most difficult to predict ”, since it depends on the economic situation of the countries.
The autonomous communities in which the population will grow the most in the coming decades, according to the INE, are the Balearic Islands (14.9%), Madrid (9.1%) and the Canary Islands (8.4%), as long as the trends continue current demographics.
On the other side of the balance are Extremadura (8.3%), Castilla y León (10%) and Asturias (10%), which would lose the most inhabitants compared to their current population.
The INE advises that its population projections show “the evolution that the population of Spain would follow if current demographic trends were maintained.” That is, “they do not constitute a prediction, in the sense that they are not intended to determine which it is the most probable evolution ”.
Information about the coronavirus
- Here you can follow the last hour on the evolution of the pandemic
- This is how the coronavirus curve evolves in Spain and in each autonomy
- Download the tracking application for Spain
- Search engine: The new normal by municipalities
- Guide to action against the disease
