In Spain there are 11 large cities with an incidence of 500 cases per 100,000 inhabitants and in 14 days and another five cities that exceed 350 cases.
Not all its curves are the same: in some a plateau or a descent is noticed, while in others the infections continue to grow.
The graph shows how cases have evolved in the municipalities around Madrid that exceed this threshold, one of those set by the Ministry of Health to apply restrictions.
They are 10 of the 11 with the highest incidence in Spain (the other is Pamplona, below).
In four of these municipalities - in orange - the incidence has remained stable in the week before this Tuesday, which is when the latest figures have been published.
But in the other five cities, infections have continued to grow: in Parla they have done so by 35%, in Fuenlabrada by 20%, in Leganés by 18%, in Alcobendas by 17% and in Getafe by 11%.
In those four localities, there is not a single basic area where cases drop.
All these cities have a high incidence, but there are differences.
Parla or Fuenlabrada, with more than 1,100 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, double those of Alcalá de Henares (530).
Among the municipalities, although the trends tend to be generalized, there are also different incidents depending on the neighborhood: in Fuenlabrada, for example, the cases around the Cuzco and Alicante health zones (already restricted by the Community of Madrid) double those of Loranca or Castilla la Nueva.
Something similar occurs in Torrejón de Ardoz between Fronteras (1,081) and Los Fresnos (530).
In these 10 Madrid municipalities, only 6 of the 69 basic areas have seen the infections decrease in the last week.
Among them, Mayor Bartolomé González (in Móstoles) and La Ribota (Alcorcón) stand out, where the incidence has dropped below 1000.
In the region as a whole, 18% of the PCR tests carried out continue to test positive and the health system is under pressure, with the Intensive Care Units (ICU) at 42% of their normal capacity (according to official data; doctors raise it to 105%).
But the evolution around Madrid contrasts with that of the capital.
There, half of the areas have maintained their incidence in the last seven days and one in four has reduced it by more than 10%.
The first thing that stands out is something we already knew: the incidence is highest in the south of the capital and lowest in the center, within the M-30.
But the trend differences are more interesting.
In the south, the virus appears to be holding back.
Its incidence is high, but it decreases in half of the basic areas;
something similar happens in the north.
On the other hand, within the central almond the general trend is flat or upward, perhaps because there they started from a better situation: no area exceeds 1,000 cases and only four surpass 800 (Lavapiés, Montesa, Villamil and Chopera).
It seems that the areas that had the worst incidence two weeks ago are those that now see declines.
It is possible that the overload of primary care in some areas has somehow slowed down diagnoses and caused an artificial decline.
But there are other more optimistic options.
The restrictions of September 21 may begin to be noticed and the neighbors may be taking precautions before.
The bad situation in Vallecas or Fuenlabrada, for example, has been alerting for weeks.
In hospitals the feeling is similar.
"A sustained drop in income is confirmed, 30% in the last week," says Juan Torres Macho, head of the Internal Medicine Service at the Infanta Leonor hospital, in the Villa de Vallecas district.
"I think the cause is mixed: now the micro-confinements would begin to be noticed, together with the fact that people have begun to limit their contacts after the return of summer."
It is good news, although it qualifies: “There are still many patients and many deaths.
The incidence should decrease more in the short term ”.
Other Spanish cities
The situation is not very reassuring in other cities with more than 100,000 inhabitants.
The worst is in Pamplona, which only avoids the restrictions of the Ministry of Health because it does not reach the occupancy limit set for ICUs (35%), but it has a higher incidence than Alcalá de Henares or Móstoles.
In Valladolid and Salamanca, the restrictions at the beginning of September do not completely bend the curve, at least for the moment, but the incidence points to the decline.
In Girona, which touched 500 cases last week, the incidence has fallen by 24% in the last week.
In León and Vitoria the virus seems, for the moment, stabilized.
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