Coronavirus and the most uncomfortable ranking: Argentina would be in a month on the edge of the podium in deaths per inhabitants

Pablo Sigal

10/22/2020 6:00 AM

• Clarín.com

• Society

Updated 10/22/2020 6:00 AM

At the end of the coronavirus pandemic, when it is necessary to put the figures in the debit and credit of the balance, the key to evaluate the performance of each country from the strictly sanitary will be

.

Not the absolute number, but the proportion in relation to the number of inhabitants of each territory.

And the prognosis is

Today, Argentina has

and is ranked 12th in this area, but in hours it would be 11th: when the day's figures are known, it is likely that it will surpass Italy, which until this Wednesday had

.

This week our country had already overtaken Sweden.

These two overtakes are just a sample of what is to come in the near future.

The problem is that most of the countries with which Argentina “competes” have already exceeded the peak and their death curves are on the decline.

Even in those in Europe that are suffering outbreaks, the consequences for now are seen

.

Everything indicates that this second round will not be as lethal as the first.

Argentina, on the other hand, is still on

of the mountain.

The enormous number of coronavirus cases that Córdoba, Santa Fe, Tucumán and Mendoza now add (while the province of Buenos Aires, although it passed the peak, remains at high levels) will sustain a

.

In the best of scenarios, and if everything continued as it is today, Argentina would add

over the next 30 days

, to reach 38,019.

That figure will place the Argentine death per million indicator at

.

If the same projection were made with each of the countries that are today above ours, a large number of these would be below: it seems incredible, but the

could remain with a lower death rate than Argentina.

Parenthesis: another of the countries that will be left behind will be Andorra, which today has 802 deaths per million and almost does not add new fatalities.

This small territory of

has had a total of 62 deaths.

Its small population means that, in proportion, its index is high.

Although its condition is incomparable from the health point of view.

The same occurs with another microstate, San Marino, which is, strictly speaking, the place in the world with the highest number of deaths per million inhabitants:

.

But it represents half of Andorra: it has

and has so far had 42 deaths.

Another territory to record in the statistics, even if it plays in another category.

In this way,

would be above Argentina in deaths per million:

, which over the next 30 days would add 1,800 more deaths and its index would reach

;

, which with 1,200 extra deaths would be at the probable rate of

;

and

, which with 5,400 new deaths would reach

deaths per million.

That is, only 11 deaths per million more than Argentina.

This account is

, since its main workhorse to justify the policy implemented since the beginning of the pandemic was, as was reasonable, to

as possible.

Today the reality is quite different from what was desired at the beginning of the quarantine.

And the horizon looks even worse.

Is there time to stop the tsunami?

Everything indicates that the actions to mitigate the crisis (such as the intensification of the tests) are being decided

, when the circulation of the coronavirus in the interior of the country is a constant leak, it has become uncontrollable and with

: between Córdoba and Santa Fe already exceed all cases in the Federal Capital.

They have done it in record time.

This is approaching, obviously, is a consequence of the fact that almost 8 months after the start of the pandemic in the country this Wednesday

has been registered

, the highest so far, to reinforce the fifth position in the world ranking of contagions.

The one

, reached just three days

ago, has quickly been left behind

.

Incidents of the peak that does not arrive and that results in each new day of pandemic in Argentina looking like a century.

$

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