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Coronavirus: how much the cases fell in the AMBA, what is the R today and when will the peak of Argentina be

2020-10-24T20:44:51.696Z


The complexity of the country's health situation presents different scenarios. The speed of infections nationwide is growing: a positive is registered every 4.67 seconds.


Pablo Sigal

10/24/2020 5:27 PM

  • Clarín.com

  • Society

Updated 10/24/2020 5:27 PM

Since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, Argentina's health risk has been split in two.

The present is no exception: while some provinces today reach record levels of contagion, the situation in the metropolitan area contrasts with that reality and consolidates a

marked decrease

after having exceeded the peak.

Clarín

relieved the situation of the Federal Capital and the Conurbano as

of September 15.

That day the City of Buenos Aires reached the peak of cases.

During that week,

the average number of infections

every 24 hours was

1,123.

More than a month after that time, in this last week the same average was

657 cases

: the drop was

41 percent.

The province of Buenos Aires exceeded the peak of infections on

October 3

.

But the district is so vast that it is not possible to speak of a single and homogeneous territory: one thing is the Conurbano and another, the Interior of Buenos Aires.

While the number of infections in the Interior has grown

by 11 percent

since that date

, in the Conurbano the decrease has been

21 percent

.

At the provincial level there was a

9 percent

drop

.

It is important to note how the participation of the Conurbano and the interior of Buenos Aires has been in the final account of the Province: until the beginning of August, 93 percent of the cases corresponded to the area closest to the Federal Capital and

only 7 percent

were it searched

beyond the third cordon

.

But its incidence was growing gradually and now represents

34 percent of the total

infections in the district.

The key that supports this data is in the famous and lately forgotten R, already known to all as the contagiousness index.

While the curve is rising, this indicator is located

above the value 1

.

When the curve decreases, the same value is accommodated below unity.


v 1.5

Contagion curves by province

Tap to explore the data

Source:

Ministry of Health

Infographic:

Clarín

How much is the R at the moment in the City, the Greater Buenos Aires and the province of Buenos Aires?

The authorities of each district confirmed to

Clarín

the figures: in the City today it is

0.95

.

This means that

100 infected infect 95.

 And it is what effectively marks a descent of the curve, but slow.

The lower the R, the faster the decrease in infections.

In the Conurbano, the R today is

0.92

.

It is practically the same indicator as that of the City and, also, the explanation that in 20 days, from the Buenos Aires peak, the district has decreased

its cases

by 21 percent

, against

41 percent

of the City within a period of

38 days

.

That is, almost twice the time elapsed and twice the percentage decrease in cases.

In the interior of Buenos Aires, on the other hand, the R is

1.11.


The reality of the AMBA contrasts with that of some provinces.

From the moment the City began to travel down the slope there were increases that in some cases

exceeded 200 percent

in daily reports.

This is the case of Tucumán, which went from having values ​​of

468 cases every 24 hours to 1,477

, which shows a rise of

215 percent.

Chinstrap workers in a refrigerator in La Plata.

Photo: Xinhua

The second province with the highest increase was Córdoba, where the curve accelerates today even faster than in Santa Fe. Córdoba had an increase of

158 percent in the last 38 days

, while Santa Fe in the same period rose

140 percent

.

Mendoza rises but slower, with a variation of

48 percent.

The slow descent of the AMBA and the strong increase in the Interior is what prevents Argentina from finally exceeding its national peak, something that has already happened

in almost the entire planet

.

The time between one contagion and another throughout the country - a key indicator to determine when the peak will happen -

has not stopped falling

in recent weeks.

It is the MTBI (Mean Time Between Infections) index, produced by the University of Tres de Febrero, and that until October 21 indicated

 a contagion every 4.69 seconds

.

On September 15, the day the City peaked, there was a contagion every 6.73 seconds.

This acceleration accounts for the increasing accumulation of cases at the national level.

Argentina is already one of the countries with

the lowest MTBI in the world

and continues to advance: it has only been surpassed by

South Africa

(4.62 seconds),

Brazil

(1.35 seconds), the 

United States

(1.24 seconds) and 

India

( 0.63 seconds).

These are the values ​​recorded by those countries when they exceeded the peak.

The last to reach it was India, on October 15.

When will the peak come in our country?

It is difficult to predict, but there is a clue: the spikes of contagions in Santa Fe and Córdoba are expected for the month between

mid-October and mid-November

.

In that time ahead, the number of cases of the AMBA will surely have also had a more marked decline.

From this alignment of the planets, the news that a whole country is waiting will finally emerge.

$

Look also

Coronavirus in the City: how and when will kindergarten, elementary and 1st year high school students return to the classroom

Rodríguez Larreta announced how the quarantine continues in the City: gyms and lounges of bars and restaurants open

Source: clarin

All life articles on 2020-10-24

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