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Is Spain doomed to a new confinement?

2020-10-28T03:45:07.208Z


The EU health advisor admits that home confinement is the only measure that has worked so farSpain, and practically all of Western Europe, have been testing increasingly severe restrictions for a couple of weeks to try to contain the rise in cases in the second wave without having to press the button of home confinement, the most effective but most feared method. In that situation is half a continent. As hospitals fill up, the repertoire of restrictions ranges from the recent curfew to th


Spain, and practically all of Western Europe, have been testing increasingly severe restrictions for a couple of weeks to try to contain the rise in cases in the second wave without having to press the button of home confinement, the most effective but most feared method.

In that situation is half a continent.

As hospitals fill up, the repertoire of restrictions ranges from the recent curfew to the idea of ​​a weekend lockdown, as Catalonia weighs.

They are intermediate measures that affect mobility without nipping it in the bud.

The problem is that it is not clear how effective they are or in what time frame they bear fruit, and time is running out in the face of a runaway virus.

So the debate that runs through Europe now is whether a short-circuit strategy, of total but brief confinements, would be more effective than gradual restrictions sustained over time.

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  • Media España heads to the perimeter closure facing the Todos los Santos bridge

In Spain it is too early for many of the most recent measures to be noticed.

Fernando Simón, director of the Center for the Coordination of Health Alerts and Emergencies (CCAES), estimates that it takes about 10 days for them to be reflected in the number of infections.

But the closure of the hospitality industry in Catalonia (October 15), the perimeter confinement of Navarra (October 19) or the reduction of groups in Ourense (October 3) could already be seen in the statistics.

It's not like that.

In the last 15 days, the number of diagnoses in Spain has risen by 23%, and in all the communities and territories - except Madrid, the Basque Country and La Rioja, where the rate of increase of is stabilized - the most recent week has been worse than the previous one.

"Confinement is the only measure for which there is scientific evidence," says Tomás Cobo, vice president of the Collegiate Medical Organization.

"With the rest we are in trial and error, but I would leave it as a last option," he adds.

"They are new measures and we do not know their effect," says Patricia Guillem, Professor of Epidemiology at the European University of Valencia.

"Beyond the restrictions, the main thing is to raise people's awareness: to always wear the mask and to be more than a meter and a half or two meters away from other people," adds Joan Caylà, from the Spanish Society of Epidemiology.

The situation is not unique to Spain.

In France, a pioneer of the night curfew, a month ago the Nobel laureates in economics Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee proposed a 20-day home closure in early December to save the Christmas campaign.

Since the restrictions were implemented, France has added 380,000 new cases (in Spain there have been 150,000), and is the western European country most affected, according to the European Center for Disease Control (ECDC).

In line with Duflo, the president of the General Council of Nursing, Florentino Pérez Raya, is blunt: "It is only possible to stop the contagion curve with a new strict confinement of 15 days," he says.

"It is clear that the temporary closure would serve, but we would have to see other impacts and see what politician dares," says Caylà.

José Martínez Olmos, from the Andalusian School of Public Health, ditch: "It will be difficult to avoid confinements with the figures of the communities."

Despite the rejection caused by the measure, there have already been countries that have opted for a total confinement, such as Ireland, which decreed it for six weeks on October 20.

Although it is still too early to see its effect, in the last week their cases have risen 9%.

In Spain, 12% have done so.

Israel has also resorted to confinement since early September.

Faced with the uncontrolled epidemic in Europe, the ECDC and the World Health Organization (WHO) repeat their mantra of measures: isolation, detection, quarantines, masks, hand hygiene, physical distance, reduction of social activity.

With all countries in a situation of "great concern" - only Norway, Cyprus, Liechtenstein, Estonia, Greece and Finland are spared - the ECDC notes that all have taken measures such as group and contact restrictions, "but these have not been completely successful and the epidemiological situation is deteriorating rapidly ”.

The agency affirms that taking stricter measures, "which were the ones that proved their effectiveness during the spring of 2020, seems the only possible strategy."

The doubt about the usefulness of the intermediate restrictions seems to lead to a home confinement, “a drastic measure that managed to greatly reduce the figures, but also caused a lot of damage to the economy.

The justification for applying it in March was the high mortality, ”says Guillem.

The director of the WHO, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, pronounced on Monday: "Nobody wants the confinements."

"We need to target our measures better and do it earlier to avoid more restrictive interventions," says a spokesman for the WHO European office.

"It is very likely that it will be necessary to raise the level of the response, but the confinements are a proposal with a thick, imperfect line and of great cost", he adds.

ECDC also insists that the stay-at-home order is a last resort.

But delaying such a drastic measure as much as possible will depend on the evolution of the pandemic.

In Italy, for example, the president of the Federation of Medical Associations, Filippo Anelli, pointed out on Monday that the latest restrictions adopted - the closure of cinemas, theaters and gyms, and the closure of bars and restaurants at 6 p.m. They represent "the last attempt by the Government before an inevitable total confinement", which will be inevitable if the situation does not improve in 15 days.

“In March, it was found that home confinement worked against the virus, but before reaching this situation, we must greatly strengthen the National Health System.

After overcoming the first wave, we have seen how our system has not managed to put a barrier to the second one ”, says Guadalupe Fontán, specialist in Public Health at the General Council of Nursing.

"Confinements without an adequate health policy to control the virus, correct tracking and more resources and better planning for primary care are not the solution," says Silvia Soler, from the Covid Persistent Platform.

More tests

If total confinements are not decided, the selective ones (at night, weekends) "now make more sense because there is a much greater capacity to carry out tests," says Cobo.

The doctor admits that new measures are now being tested because before the complete closure it is necessary to seek "the balance between economy, restriction of freedoms and disease."

"We go through the funnel tube, each time towards the narrowest part", and this leads to total confinement, Cobo admits.

Carlos Arenas, vice president of the Fundación Economía y Salud, says that the arrival of the dreaded measure will depend on “how the communities are,” and warns that “in many ICUs they are already in a complicated situation, although we are still very far from the first wave ”.

"We are going to have a hard time in the health centers, which will lead us to take more restrictive measures," he says, but believes that "perhaps the Government does not dare to propose a lockdown at the national level, but at the local level."

"If we reach total confinement, it will be a failure for all of us," says the epidemiologist Caylà.

This specialist affirms that the measures already taken, such as night confinement, the first, are scarce, and, the second, they must be well controlled.

“The curfew begins in Italy at six, in France at nine.

Here it could be put earlier, "he says. Patricia guillem believes that they have been taken late, but Caylà still thinks that with good control, strict compliance with social and hygienic measures, confinement could be avoided. If not," let's do it. "He concludes. Aurora Bueno, professor of Preventive Medicine and Public Health at the University of Granada, is not so optimistic. In an interview published by EL PAÍS this Sunday he was blunt:" We are heading for a second confinement.

The regional health ministries are not considering, for the moment, going down that road.

Sources from the Catalan Health Department clarify that weekend confinement is not their main short-term objective, but is one of many measures that are on the table, under study.

"The decree of State of alarm does not contemplate it and it is not on the table that the Balearic Islands propose it," say sources from the corresponding council.

But nothing is immovable.

“At the moment, it is not on the table here, but always at the moment.

We are going to see the results in the next seven days ”, they say in Extremadura.

Information about the coronavirus

- Here you can follow the last hour on the evolution of the pandemic

- This is how the coronavirus curve evolves in the world

- Download the tracking application for Spain

- Search engine: The new normal by municipalities

- Guide to action against the disease

Source: elparis

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