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This flu season is going to look different. That's why - Walla! health

2020-10-30T05:38:54.353Z


We do not have many good things to say about the corona virus, but there is a good chance that the flu season will improve (a little). Dr. Idan Goren with everything we have learned so far about the combination of corona and flu


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This flu season is going to look different.

this is the reason

We do not have many good things to say about the corona virus, but there is a good chance that the flu season will improve (a little).

Dr. Idan Goren with everything we have learned so far about the combination of corona and flu

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  • Corona

  • the flu

  • I'm just asking

Walla!

health

Friday, 30 October 2020, 06:55

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We are officially in the off-season, but even before it started we warned here (twice) that this year it is very worthwhile for you to get vaccinated against the flu, because you do not want to take the risk of starting Corona and the flu at the same time.

This recommendation is still valid, although today we have more tools to predict what this flu season will look like.

This is what we know about her in the meantime.

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How do you know if there will be a severe or mild flu season?

One of the main ways to predict what the flu season in the northern hemisphere is going to look like, and for us in particular, is to examine each year what is happening in the southern hemisphere, which experienced the peak of the winter season in June-August.

What happens in the southern half of the globe does not predict how intense the flu is likely to be, but rather allows us to know which strains are likely to arrive.

So what did the flu season look like in the Southern Hemisphere?

Unlike previous years, the current flu season in the southern hemisphere has reached a historic low.

Just to illustrate, so far this season only about 21,000 cases of this flu have been confirmed in Australia compared to over 313 cases verified in the previous year.

Similar figures come from other southern countries like Chile and South Africa.

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This effect applies not only to the current season but also to the previous season.

In the United States, an analysis of previous winter data shows that the number of diagnoses of influenza has fallen sharply within two weeks of declaring a state of emergency against COVID-19 and the widespread implementation of social distance measures, masking and closing public institutions.

Similar findings have been reported in other countries in the northern hemisphere and also in the tropics.

Why is this actually happening?

One of the main explanations is that the decrease in this is due to the fact that the ways of transmission and transmission of the viruses are similar, and therefore the protective measures against the corona effectively prevented the transmission of influenza.

Relatively speaking, although both viruses are mainly transmitted by droplet infection, it is known that the coefficient of infection of the influenza virus is significantly lower than that of the corona.

This coefficient estimates the number of people that each patient is expected to infect - and stands at 1.3 in the case of seasonal flu compared to 2 to 3.5 in the case of the corona virus.

Protective measures are also effective against the flu.

A girl in California wears a protective shield and mask and receives a flu vaccine (Photo: AP)

Another difference that could have contributed to the dramatic decrease in influenza morbidity is the fact that the time between infection and the onset of flu symptoms is significantly higher compared to corona.

While both viruses can be infected during the incubation phase and before symptoms appear, the corona window of opportunity is longer: the corona virus incubation period can last a week and a half and even two weeks while the flu is three days on average.

This difference gives the corona virus a significant advantage over the flu.

Is there also a direct effect of the corona on the effect?

Direct effect between different viruses cannot be ruled out.

A study by researchers from Hong Kong University from 2017 found that over four years a direct link was found between the appearance of respiratory viruses.

For example, in periods when the influenza virus was active, other respiratory viruses were hardly identified as active, such as the parainfluenza virus and the adenovirus virus.

The researchers concluded that an outbreak of certain viruses creates a direct disruption to the spread of other viruses, which may affect the date and duration of the epidemics.

What can we learn from the corona about the flu?

In the future, once we succeed in eradicating the current epidemic, it will be possible to continue to apply some of the same lessons that the Corona taught us.

Among other things, isolation of people with fever and symptoms of acute respiratory disease, protective measures and rules of hygiene.

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Source: walla

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