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Schoolchildren in Hanover (archive picture)
Photo: Holger Hollemann / DPA
Almost a million more schoolchildren: The Standing Conference (KMK) expects that by 2030. The KMK published the forecast on Friday.
In the next ten years, the number of pupils nationwide will rise to around 11.7 million.
The increase of 986,700 students by 2030 means an increase of 9.2 percent compared to the previous year, when 10.8 million children and young people attended schools.
The trend is pointing upwards at all school types - with one exception: the ministries only expect a decline in the number of pupils in vocational schools.
According to the KMK, the number of graduates from general schools will increase slightly by three percent from 795,000 to 819,000 during the calculation period.
At vocational schools, however, this number will drop by five percent from 963,000 to 916,000.
According to the forecast, there are big differences in regional development:
In the
eastern German states
, the number of pupils will only increase slightly from just under 1.45 million in 2019 to 1.48 million in 2030.
In the
western German states there
should be an increase from 8.5 to 9.3 million over the same period - an increase of 9.8 percent.
The expected percentage growth in the
city-states is
even stronger
: with an increase of 15.1 percent to 918,000 students, the forecast increase is the greatest here.
The forecast of the number of pupils and graduates presented now is an important planning basis for the KMK: The data are used to estimate the need for teachers for the coming years.
This so-called teacher recruitment requirement calculation for the federal states is now to be drawn up and presented in December.
It has long been clear that the schools and the ministries of education will have to adjust to a massive shortage of teachers in the coming years, which is already clearly being felt today.
"We don't currently have the teachers we need in schools or in teacher training," says Udo Beckmann, Chairman of the Association for Education and Upbringing (VBE) Half of the new hires are not originally trained teachers. "
The student forecast is also the basis for planning school buildings: The federal states also have a lot of catching up to do here.
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him / dpa