The goal seemed within reach.
All the indicators were green.
And then, the curve flattened ... As the Director General of Health pointed out on Monday, the threshold of 5,000 daily cases of coronavirus, required by Emmanuel Macron to lift the confinement, may not be reached before the 15th. December.
“In recent days, the level of daily contaminations has not dropped, warned Jérôme Salomon during a press briefing.
Despite our best efforts, we still face a high risk of an epidemic rebound.
"Implied: deconfinement, it may not be for tomorrow ...
The famous gauge of 5,000 daily cases, however, is based on a more symbolic than scientific basis.
This is the level of traffic recorded in the heart of summer, when the epidemic was still under control throughout the territory.
Hence the choice of the authorities to use it as a basis to restart the activities of the country.
VIDEO. "The decrease in the number of positive cases is marking time," notes Salomon
“It should be understood that there is no threshold effect below 5000 cases, warns Mircea T. Sofonea, lecturer in epidemiology and evolution of infectious diseases at the University of Montpellier (Hérault).
It's a continuum.
The problem is that this order of magnitude was chosen as the course and that it now seems difficult to achieve.
"
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Several factors can explain the slowing down of the reduction in contamination.
The reopening of shops and places of worship may have caused more traffic, as well as the lifting of teleworking in small businesses, while the winter cold has certainly led to more promiscuity and less ventilation of enclosed places. .
"A threshold established with a wet finger"
For the public health doctor and epidemiologist Martin Blachier, the fact of not reaching the famous 5,000 daily cases is not necessarily a problem.
“What appeals more is the breaking of the downward trend,” he raises.
If we reach a plateau, we lose room for maneuver for the future, because the reproduction of the virus is already high.
However, as soon as more than one person is infected by each patient, we lose control of the epidemic.
"
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In the short term, it seems rather possible to open, as planned, the cultural rooms and to authorize travel.
But any deviation, such as large gatherings or the massive resumption of face-to-face work, could more easily provoke a third wave.
To the point, no doubt, of compromising the total lifting of restrictive measures desired around January 20, with the reopening of bars and restaurants in particular.
Catherine Hill, epidemiologist and biostatistician, believes for her part that it is the entire containment strategy that should be reviewed so as not to relive an outbreak of cases in a few weeks.
Starting with the choice of this famous gauge of 5,000 daily cases.
"It's a threshold established with a wet finger," she protests.
But above all, this threshold is based on an indicator that is worth nothing!
The number of cases that we find does not correspond to the number of cases that there are in the country: it only corresponds to the number of cases that we detect.
It is very different.
"
More encouraging signals in intensive care
The fact, for example, of preparing to include the results of antigenic tests in the figures established so far only via PCRs alone should automatically increase the number of cases identified.
“We are sawing the branch on which we are sitting”, summarizes the researcher.
A possible alternative would be to carry out surveys on representative samples of the population, as has been done in England, and to deduce the circulation of the virus over the entire territory.
Otherwise, the hospitalizations and intensive care admissions figures can be used, keeping in mind that they are out of time with the contaminations.
It also seems more likely that the government's objectives will be achieved in this area, which wanted less than 3,000 resuscitation beds to be occupied by Covid patients in order to move towards deconfinement.
However, there too, the decrease has slowed down in recent days.
What to foresee rapid tensions in the event of resumption of contaminations in the coming weeks.
