Will we have an influenza epidemic this winter?
Since the creation of the disease surveillance system in the mid-1980s, the question had never arisen.
But the Covid-19 health crisis, which has presented a worrying risk of a rebound for several days, is reshuffling the cards.
Explanations.
Our landmark, Australia.
When summer arrives in Europe, the southern hemisphere, characterized by the same temperate climate, bundles up, and it is therefore from June to September that the winter flu epidemic occurs there.
However, this season, surprise, it hardly took place.
"Traffic was extremely low in Australia, New Zealand, South Africa and Argentina," notes Sibylle Bernard-Stoecklin, epidemiologist at Public Health France, the public health agency responsible for its surveillance.
So far this year, we can say that there has been no flu epidemic.
This is an unprecedented situation.
This low spread is explained by the measures taken against the Covid.
Barrier gestures, wearing a mask, physical distance and a sharp reduction in international trade have been a bulwark against contamination.
In France, nothing to report.
If the flu generally strikes between the end of the year and March, it remains unpredictable, sometimes early, sometimes late, repeat the scientists.
But one thing is certain: at this time, this disease, which causes 10,000 to 15,000 deaths per year in France, should begin to circulate and intensify.
" Where is she ?
questions, ironically, Serge Smadja, at the head of SOS Médecins.
We should see a bit of it, but at the moment there is nothing.
“Since October, only six cases have been spotted in hospitals in France, including two in people returning from a trip abroad.
A trend that should confirm Public Health France, which is due to publish new figures this Wednesday, December 9.
Other viruses with absent subscribers.
Each year, RSV, the respiratory syncytial virus, which causes bronchiolitis in infants, spreads before the flu and stops when it starts.
However, this fall, "its level was very low, as shown in particular by the number of visits to the emergency room," continues epidemiologist Sibylle Bernard-Stoecklin.
“Usually, during this period, I see them every day in my office, is surprised the general practitioner Jean-Paul Hamon, honorary president of the Federation of Doctors of France, but there, thanks to the barrier gestures, I must have received three to four patients at the most, it's a surprise!
The horizon also remains calm on the side of gastroenteritis.
Only the rhinovirus, the cause of colds, really appeared at the start of the school year.
A record vaccination.
In addition to the barrier gestures linked to Covid, another factor may have contributed to putting the flu on hold, and that is the vaccine.
It gained wide acceptance after very strong recommendations from the authorities.
Why this incentive?
Because catching the Covid and the flu at the same time could lead to much more serious infections in vulnerable people, they warned.
Thirteen million French people have already been immunized against around 10 last year.
In nursing homes, 50% to 60% of staff have been immunized against 20% to 30% usually.
“There are hardly any stocks left anywhere.
As of Thursday, new doses will arrive in pharmacies.
They will be reserved for priority audiences (
Editor's note: over 65s, pregnant women, chronically ill ...)
, specifies Pierre Béguerie, president of the central council of the Order of Pharmacists.
That the State is obliged to buy 2 million doses internationally, it is unheard of ”.
To the point that pharmacies had to set up waiting lists.
"I have a patient who is 240th, it's still crazy," says Dr. Hamon.
READ ALSO>
Flu vaccine: Ehpad delivered en masse, a test for Covid-19
Could the flu go away?
“Excellent question,” answers Sibylle Bernard-Stoecklin.
We all ask ourselves, ”she said, specifying doubting such a scenario.
“Even if it is circulating at a historically low level, it is detected in West Africa and Asia,” she notes.
But the Covid could have a surprise in store for us of another order, late 2021-early 2022. As the manufacture of the flu vaccine takes six months, experts from the World Health Organization meet in February to decide on this. that it will contain, depending on the strains identified.
However, their level of traffic is so low that their work could be compromised for the following winter.
Specialist Sibylle Bernard-Stoecklin admits: “It could be more complicated.
Such a situation has never happened before.
"