The pandemic will have at least been good for the climate this year.
CO2 emissions of fossil origin have experienced a record drop of 7% in 2020, linked to the containment measures taken against Covid-19, according to the annual report of the Global carbon project (GCP) published on Friday.
This text focuses on annual CO2 emissions of fossil origin and their persistence in the atmosphere, responsible for climate change and its share of disasters.
This report is traditionally published at UN climate conferences.
This year, its publication comes in a particular context, as the 26th COP scheduled in Glasgow has been postponed for a year.
An online summit will be held on Saturday with several heads of state to mark the 5th anniversary of the Paris agreement.
Unpublished results
The results are unprecedented and represent a drop in global CO2 emissions over the year of 2.4 billion tonnes.
At the height of containment in the spring, they even fell by around 17% compared to 2019. Never before had such a decrease been observed, according to a press release.
During previous global crises (1945, 1981, 1992, 2009), they had never exceeded 0.9 billion tonnes.
The 2020 Global Carbon Budget is out.
Find analyzes, data, figures, infographics and animations about the human and natural sources and sinks of CO2, updated to 2020https: //t.co/NbgZT0dDW8 pic.twitter.com/oyum3vxT3I
- GlobalCarbonProject (@gcarbonproject) December 11, 2020
"The decrease in emissions in 2020 seems more pronounced in the United States (-12%), in the EU-27 (-11%) and in India (-9%), the effect of the Covid-19 restrictions is adding to a previous trend, and being less pronounced in China (-1.7%), where restrictive measures were taken at the start of the year and were more limited in time, ”according to the statement.
In China, emissions increased by 2% in 2018. "There would not have been the Covid-19, this growth would probably have continued", explains Philippe Ciais, researcher at the Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Sciences during a videoconference.
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By sector, reductions in CO2 emissions were more marked in surface transport, which represents 21% of global emissions.
They "have been reduced by half in the countries at the height of the confinement", according to the press release.
Those in the aviation sector collapsed by 75%.
They represent only 2.8% of global emissions, but are constantly growing.
Emissions from industry (22% of global emissions) "have been reduced by 30% in countries at the height of containment."
Over a longer period of time, "the growth in global emissions has averaged 0.9% per year between 2,010 and 2,019", after 3% per year between 2000 and 2009.
A "temporary respite"
However, this is not enough to reduce global warming and its impacts, as CO2 emissions remain at high levels.
In addition, their decrease linked to the coronavirus crisis should be short-lived.
In China, emissions have already returned in April to the level they had previously, indicates Philippe Ciais, who says "expect there to be a rebound in 2021" and who fears "a temporary respite".
"The way to mitigate climate change is not to stop activities but to accelerate the transition to low carbon energies", insists the researcher.
In addition, the reduction in CO2 emissions does not lead to a reduction in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, he recalls.
It was multiplied by almost 1.5 between 1750 and 2019.
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"The big question is whether the investments linked to economic recovery will make it possible to create a real increase in low-carbon energies and a visible reduction in emissions", indicates Philippe Ciais.
Some 12.8 trillion dollars have been pledged in recent months, including 11,000 by the G20 states, to support businesses or households, three times more than after the 2008 crisis. But according to 14 research institutes, the countries of the G20 have announced at least 234 billion dollars of public money for fossil fuels, 151 billion for clean energies.