Fifteen since January 2, 23 since this Sunday, 25 from tomorrow… and then?
The list of departments where the curfew is advanced to 6 p.m. keeps getting longer.
Others could be added in the coming days, as the spread of the British variant across the country raises fears of a massive resumption of the Covid-19 epidemic.
A re-containment is "not planned at this stage," government spokesman Gabriel Attal said on Monday morning on Europe 1.
"The current figures lead us to think that the curfew is enough," Jean Castex told parliamentary group leaders shortly after.
So, if that is “enough”, which departments could soon be concerned?
There are, first of all, the two which appeared on the list of 10 territories under tension, transmitted at the end of the press conference of Jean Castex Thursday evening:
Yonne
and
Haute-Savoie
.
In the first, "the curfew remains fixed at 8 pm" but "this situation is likely to evolve", indicated the prefecture on Saturday.
In the second, "following the departmental consultation" and "taking note of changes in the health situation", the prefect also maintained the curfew at 8 pm.
Each time, the elected officials were upwind against the passage at 6 p.m.
"Not the most effective measure to take"
In view of the various indicators taken into account by the authorities, in particular the incidence rate and that among the elderly, other departments appear to be in a worrying situation… or even should already be concerned.
This is the case
of Deux-Sèvres
, for example.
In this territory located to the north of the Nouvelle-Aquitaine region, the incidence rate is now 212.5.
This is more than in the Vosges or the Marne, which are already under advanced curfew.
It even rises to 251 in people aged 70 and over, according to our calculations.
Last Thursday, a meeting took place between the prefect and local elected officials.
“The majority of elected officials were opposed to the curfew at 6 pm,” reports ex-LREM deputy Guillaume Chiche, who also wonders about the modes of spread of the virus and therefore the effectiveness of such a provision.
“This did not seem to us to be the most effective measure to take, in particular in a rural department because there is much less social contact after 6 pm here than elsewhere,” says her colleague Delphine Batho (ex-PS) .
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“The question may arise in the coming days.
[…] The population does not behave in the same way when you are in a large metropolis of more than a million inhabitants or when you are in a quiet village of Deux-Sèvres ”, he himself indicated. Friday the prefect of Deux-Sèvres, cited by France Bleu.
The territory can also benefit from being isolated in the middle of less affected departments, hospital capacities at the regional level being suddenly less strained than elsewhere.
Highest intensive care occupancy rate in Bourgogne Franche-Comté
This is not the case with
Dawn
.
The territory is located in the Bourgogne Franche-Comté region, which has been particularly affected by the virus for several weeks.
At its borders, the Marne, Haute-Marne and Côte-d'Or are already affected by a 6 p.m. curfew.
The Aube benefits, for the moment, from an incidence rate well below 200 (178).
But this has already reached 210 among the over 70s.
And the intensive care occupancy rate, calculated based on pre-crisis capacities, is 84% in the region, the highest level.
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VIDEO. Curfew at 6 pm: "It's better than a re-containment"
Further north,
the Somme
also has an incidence rate very close to 200 in the general population and already above 200 in the oldest people.
"If our prefect deems it necessary to decide on a curfew at 6 pm, she will have my full support," said LREM deputy Cécile Delpirou.
The fear of the English variant
These different indicators of the epidemic are essential tools for decision-making, but they are obviously not the only ones taken into account.
The geographic or social context of a territory can also play a role, as well as the appearance of an outbreak of the British variant.
This is said to be 50 to 74% more contagious than the most common strain, making it much more difficult to stop its spread.
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Thus, if the incidence rate is lower in a territory but the proportion of people positive for this variant is greater, this may necessitate taking more rapid measures. In Loiret, where the indicators remain at levels within the national average, a first case of the English variant was identified in mid-December. "We are not facing an explosion in the number of people infected with this variant, but we are monitoring the situation several times a day", indicates Thierry Prazuck, the head of the infectious diseases department at the hospital in Orléans.