Rather pessimistic.
While France has just switched to advanced curfew mode throughout its territory, and the government does not rule out a new re-containment in the event of a deterioration in the health situation, even more difficult times may await us. be in the next few months.
Particularly because of the variants of Covid-19.
In any case, this is what the epidemiologist Arnaud Fontanet fears: “The scenarios show that we should manage to hold out until March.
Unfortunately, compared to the variants, which are really a game changer for this epidemic, I have no rational argument to tell you that we are not going to experience a progression of the epidemic that could start in March- April ”, he explained during the Grand Jury RTL-LCI-Le Figaro program.
▶ #COVID ー 19.
🗣 Pr Arnaud Fontanet: "There is a worldwide awareness of this brand new issue represented by #variants, which appeared surprisingly late in the history of this epidemic".
📺 #LeGrandJury on # La26 cc @agindre.
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- LCI (@LCI) January 17, 2021
"Before the variant begins to speak for itself - and according to the scenarios we have today, it is rather in March that its outbreak should be felt - well we must empty these beds. hospitals and these rehabilitation beds, ”added the member of the Scientific Council.
He also recalled that the United Kingdom, before the appearance of a variant in November, had more or less control of the epidemic, which is no longer the case today.
No re-containment, for the moment ...
In France, "there has been no resumption of the epidemic as severe as what we feared after the end of the year holidays, but there is still a small increase which is not trivial" , noted Arnaud Fontanet.
"What is really annoying is that we start with a very high level of bed occupancy at the end of the second wave," he said.
"And suddenly we do not have a lot of leeway if the epidemic starts again".
But Arnaud Fontanet did not recommend immediate confinement.
"It's good to try to do everything in order not to go towards confinement, which is still an extremely heavy measure at the economic and social level.
Keeping in mind, however, that the earlier the measures are taken, the more effective they are, so there is a dilemma ”, explained this epidemiologist.
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According to him, in the absence of effective treatment, the proportion of French people being vaccinated against Covid-19 should be as high as possible if time confirms that the various vaccines are safe.
“For me it should be 100%.
As long as we know that the vaccine works, and that the vaccine has no adverse effects, why deprive it?
".
Because to stop the circulation of the virus, "it will be necessary to reach larger populations", he detailed.
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"Now that we know that these variants are ultimately more transmissible than the virus we knew, that also means that the vaccination coverage will have to be greater than what we anticipated until now", according to this doctor who advises the government.
