Although there has not yet been a decrease in morbidity, the data may change for the better following vaccinations within days • A high immunization rate will prevent another wave in the spring • Interpretation
A basic condition set for the end of the closure is confirmation of a significant reduction in morbidity.
Unfortunately, this is not the case at the moment.
Despite a decrease in the infection coefficient (R) in recent days, we do not yet see a decrease in morbidity.
Health Minister Edelstein, Tuesday: "It is impossible to live with an average of 8,160 verified per day"
At the current level of morbidity, such a significant decline is a necessary condition for the reopening of the economy.
We will know that the closure is as effective as the previous closures if for a few days we see 10% fewer new carriers every day compared to the previous day.
Examination of the morbidity centers reveals significant differences between different cities.
In many of the cities where the morbidity rate is high - the immunization rate is low.
Unfortunately, so far we see a gap between the rate of immunization in the ultra-Orthodox sector and the rest of Israeli society, and this is also a gap related to the fact that this is a public with a relatively small older population.
This matter is in the opposite correlation to morbidity in the ultra-Orthodox cities, which is at its peak these days.
The fact that opinion leaders in the sector have started calling for immunization and adherence to the rules is an encouraging sign.
At the same time, the general society is not yet seen as having a significant effect of vaccines, but this is evident in studies that surveyed the medical staffs in the hospitals that were vaccinated at the end of December.
According to our models, a significant impact on the general population is expected starting this weekend, around the 21st of the month, and will be reflected in the process of a decrease in the number of difficult patients coming to the hospitals every day.
The extensive vaccination campaign is very important in preventing another outbreak of disease.
A relatively controlled exit process, as it was in the previous exit, did not prevent the current outbreak.
Therefore a high immunization rate is critical for preventing another wave in the spring.
The vaccination process can also be used as a catalyst in opening industries, especially the education industry.
The immunization of teaching staff is very important in this regard, and at the same time the vaccination of 10th-12th grade students can be prioritized to enable them to finish their studies and matriculation exams well. The fact that the education system has demonstrated excellent ability Very within the classrooms, allow this system to be one of the first to open at the end of the closure.
Alongside this, the vaccine has some uncertainties.
The main one is whether the vaccine prevents the possibility of the vaccine infecting others.
For this reason, the exit from the current quarantine must be controlled, despite the vaccination operation, while continuing to adhere to the restrictions.
And one last thing.
It is possible to be encouraged by the strict adherence to the process of entering the country by air, through tests and isolation of those who arrive.
It is very difficult to determine the effect of the non-compliance with the entry into the country on the existence and size of the corona outbreaks, but it is possible to mark critical points where Ben Gurion Airport had a negative impact.
This disregard was also a catalyst for the wave of morbidity in October, when Israelis returned from Turkey.
The need for extreme care at Ben Gurion Airport is also clear in light of the fact that in all countries that have managed to take control of the corona, arriving in a controlled country, and testing and isolation in hotels are used to prevent disease from entering the country.
The author is a professor of physics at the Spice Institute of Physics of the Hebrew University, a member of the university's epidemic monitoring team, advising government ministries and the Corona Cabinet.
Brought to print: Assaf Golan
