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UK doubts its vaccination strategy as deaths accelerate

2021-01-20T19:43:27.497Z


1,820 people have died in the last 24 hours according to this Wednesday's report. The country's highest health authority admits that they are closely monitoring the decision to delay the second dose of the vaccine


There is no point of no return in anti-virus strategy.

It is a constant trial and error in which scientific humility prevails over political arrogance if it is necessary to correct the course.

The government of Boris Johnson these days barely concealed its euphoria at what seemed like its first great success for many months: more than four and a half million people vaccinated in the first dose against the coronavirus, in a campaign planned with military precision.

The numbers of infections and deaths have a dizzying rate: 38,905 infected and 1,820 deaths this Wednesday.

In 24 hours the previous record of deaths was exceeded in more than 200 people.

Almost 40,000 hospital beds remain occupied by covid-19 patients.

It was the day chosen by Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific advisor, to admit that the decision adopted in mid-December, when it was decided to prioritize quantity over efficiency, should be analyzed “very carefully”.

On the recommendation of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunization (JCVI, in its acronym in English), the Johnson Executive decided to extend up to 12 weeks between the first and second doses, against the recommendation of the manufacturing laboratories not to exceed the 21 days.

"Given the high level of protection provided by the first dose, our models suggest that vaccinating a larger number of people initially with a single dose will prevent more deaths and hospitalizations than vaccinating fewer people with two doses."

The scientific community was divided over the decision, but the Government was reinforced, in a strategy that had a high stake component, by the authority emanating from the JCVI.

With the vaccination rhythm set in motion, the number of vaccinated people could double with a single dose.

And the effectiveness of that first injection, they assured, would be 90% in the short term.

The warning signal has come from Israel, which leads the world ranking for speed of vaccination.

Ran Ballicer, Head of Innovation at Clalit, one of the largest Israeli health service providers, explained the results of the first study with real data on the effects of the vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech.

"We have compared 200,000 people over 60 who received the first dose with another 200,000 of the same age who had not yet been vaccinated," Ballicer told Sky News.

"As of day 14, a 33% decrease in infections was observed in the first group."

These are preliminary results, which need an academic peer review, and which have a very limited field of study, because in Israel the second dose is being administered at 21 days.

But they reflect far less effectiveness than the British authorities anticipated.

In fact, Vallance began this Wednesday to put nuances to the strategy of the United Kingdom.

"It is not logical to expect any results in the first 10 days after receiving the injection," he explained.

“And we know that, in the real world, the results are not as positive as in clinical trials.

We have based our recommendation on a predicted efficacy of 89% after the first 10 days, but in practice it will not be as high, although not as low as suggested [from Israel] ", qualified the British scientist.

The Johnson administration remains optimistic, but admits doubts.

"The most difficult question, for which we still do not have an answer, is what will be the degree of protection of the vaccine for the most vulnerable groups [with previous pathologies], not only to prevent them from being infected but to prevent them from developing serious diseases" , has recognized the Minister of Health, Matt Hancock.

The United Kingdom advanced its vaccination strategy to the rest of the world by almost a month, and has been increasing the daily figures at cruising speed, with close to 1,000 distribution points throughout the country.

However, Pfizer's announcement that it was temporarily slowing down dose production has put a brake on the pace.

If last Friday about 324,000 people received the first injection, on Monday they barely exceeded 200,000.

Downing Street sources admit that the public goal of having the 15 million most vulnerable citizens vaccinated by mid-February is beginning to be at risk.

At the current rate of new infections, the Johnson administration fears a possible “day before the Armistice” (referring to the thousands of deaths in the hours before the announced end of World War I).

The relaxation of all those who receive their first dose in the days after, when its effects are not yet real, can cause a new wave of infections and deaths that British hospitals, at the limit of their capacity, would hardly resist.

Information about the coronavirus

- Here you can follow the last hour on the evolution of the pandemic

- Restrictions search engine: What can I do in my municipality?

- This is how the coronavirus curve evolves in the world

- Download the tracking application for Spain

- Guide to action against the disease

Source: elparis

All life articles on 2021-01-20

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