Is the 6 p.m. curfew effective?
More than the one at 8 pm?
On the one hand, this is a question that many French people are asking themselves, irritated by this constraint which impacts their daily lives.
On the other hand, members of the government, Jean Castex, the Prime Minister a week ago, Olivier Véran, Minister of Health this Thursday, who like to repeat its usefulness.
This Thursday evening, in its epidemiological update, Public Health France (SPF) publishes its work on "the impact of anticipated curfews on the dynamics of the Covid-19 epidemic at the level of the departments of metropolitan France".
The health agency distinguishes three groups.
The first 15 departments, or 6.4 million inhabitants, under curfew at 6 p.m. as of January 2 make up group 1. Ten others who were so on January 10 and 12 are in group 2 and all 61 other departments in curfew since January 16 constitute group 3.
For the first affected, the incidence rate has decreased
By focusing on the incidence rate (the number of positive tests per 100,000 inhabitants) for weeks 53 and 1, Santé Publique France notes "an increase in the rate in the three groups, but it is less marked in group 1 Compared to the previous week, the variation in the incidence rate was in fact + 15% in group 1, against 24% and 36% in groups 2 and 3, respectively ”.
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Then in week 2, SPF even observed a 13.3% decrease in the incidence rate between the first and second week of the year in group 1, which already had a curfew.
Conversely, in the other two groups, not yet under this new measure, the rate "remains relatively stable at + 0.7% in group 2 and + 4.7% in group 3".
Before pointing out that the screening rate follows the same trend.
The positivity rate of the tests, it seems less telling since it follows the same curve, regardless of the group.
However, he goes back in week 2 for the first ones under curfew.
Too early to draw any conclusions
What to remember?
For SPF, “the improvement of the epidemiological situation may be partly linked to the implementation of the early curfew […] Nevertheless, the evolution of the situation was already more favorable in this group than in the two others in week 01, when it was too early for the effect of the early curfew to be observed ”.
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How can this be explained?
“This difference could be linked to more cautious behavior of the population during the holidays in these departments where the viral circulation was particularly active.
Coupled with school holidays, this taking into account of risks and the implementation of the early curfew could have had a cumulative effect, ”she analyzes cautiously.
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Finally, she concludes that "the evolution of the indicators in the three groups in the coming days, in particular in the departments placed under early curfew on January 10 and 12, will make it possible to confirm or invalidate this hypothesis ..."
If a shift seems observable, we will ultimately have to wait to know the real effectiveness or not of this measure aiming "an impact on aperitif time", favorable to gatherings.