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Covid-19: is the positivity rate really 0.3% in schools?

2021-01-22T12:40:51.614Z


This is what Jean-Michel Blanquer argues, according to whom contaminations in students are "limited". But this figure covers only one


Schools are still open in France, but until when?

The spread of the English variant raises fears of a re-containment and, possibly, a closure of schools.

Several foreign countries, such as Germany, the United Kingdom and then Portugal on Thursday, have already made this choice.

Invited this Friday morning from RTL, Jean-Michel Blanquer wanted to be rather reassuring.

According to the Minister of National Education, the positivity rate in schools would be 0.3%.

"We remain on a kind of plateau," he said.

Other known figures are however much higher.

We can decipher the situation for you.

What Jean-Michel Blanquer said

"The positivity rate in schools has not changed, it is 0.3% on thousands of tests that we do in schools, especially in high schools and colleges, on adults and students," a advanced the Minister of National Education, specifying having received this information Thursday evening.

#Coronavirus: "The positivity rate in schools has not changed, it is 0.3%, we remain on a plateau", @jmblanquer in #RTLMatin with @VenturaAlba pic.twitter.com/Z5KdwegPVW

- RTL France (@RTLFrance) January 22, 2021

What are the official figures?

The figures of Public Health France are however apparently very different… and much higher.

The positivity rate corresponds to the number of positive people compared to the number of people tested, over a period of one week.

According to the latest data released Thursday evening, this rate rises to 7.6% among 10-19 and 8.4% among those under ten for the week of January 12 to 18.

Not all children and adolescents under the age of twenty go to school, college or high school, of course.

But this does not prevent the gap with 0.3% from being immense.

Where does the figure put forward by Jean-Michel Blanquer come from?

Contacted by Le Parisien, the minister's entourage explains that this rate of 0.3% (actually 0.29%) is calculated from the number of tests carried out during massive screening operations organized in schools, colleges and high schools .

They are almost only antigenic tests.

The goal is to achieve 300,000 per week in February.

According to the latest figures from the ministry, around 170,000 tests were carried out in one week.

A rate of 0.3% therefore means that only around 500 people tested positive.

By comparison, from January 12 to 18, 220,000 adolescents aged 10 to 19 were tested and nearly 17,000 of them were positive, according to Public Health France.

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The number of 500 therefore seems extremely low.

The minister's entourage puts forward as a possible explanation that people reported positive during these screenings in schools are based on the declarative.

Suddenly, some might not be taken into account.

On the other hand, more asymptomatic people who are not even in contact usually participate in such massive screening operations.

When you walk through the door of a laboratory or a pharmacy, it is generally that there is more reason to be tested and therefore, in the end, to be positive.

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To further complicate the situation a little, the Ministry of National Education draws up a quantitative assessment every week… in which this rate of 0.3% does not appear.

The one posted this Friday morning tells us that 10,003 and 1,586 staff members have been confirmed cases over the last seven days.

It is specified that this represents 0.08% of students and 0.13% of staff.

However, such percentages are generally calculated according to the number of people tested, and not the total numbers.

"There is nothing scientific about these figures, but above all we observe the trends", before the entourage of Jean-Michel Blanquer.

However, the evolution is not good.

Last Friday, "only" 7,782 students and 1,136 staff had been identified positive over seven days, for example.

"School is a place of contamination, even if the situation remains fairly under control for the moment," said the ministry, without excluding a deterioration of the situation in the coming weeks.

In summary

  • The figure of 0.3% put forward by Jean-Michel Blanquer corresponds to the known number of students and / or educational staff declared positive compared to the number of all those tested during screening operations carried out in schools.

  • All in all, the positivity rates in children and adolescents are between 7% and 9% in France.

  • The ministry prefers to analyze trends over time rather than raw numbers.

    And in this regard, the situation has deteriorated for a few weeks.

Source: leparis

All life articles on 2021-01-22

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