Donald Trump is racing for victory in Iowa. The latest Des Moines Register poll puts him at 48 percent, a 28-point lead over Nikki Haley. The former governor of South Carolina is in fact second with 20 percent, ahead of Ron DeSantis who slipped to third place with 16 percent. "We're going to win. Go vote and save America," Trump told his supporters who braved the polar chill to hear him at Simpson College in Indianola, not far from Des Moines.
If the findings are confirmed, the former president would make history. In fact, no candidate has ever won by such a large margin. "Haley is not up to the job" as president, "she is not strong enough," he added, speaking to his people, with whom he is committed to "ending the invasion" of migrants and "preventing Democrats from winning in 2024." "I've been indicted four times, more than Al Capone," he said. And he criticized DeSantis — a "disappointment" — and Vivek Ramaswamy, the Republican candidate many call the "Trump Millennial." "It's not MAGA, don't waste your vote," added the former president, who is worried about a possible low turnout at the caucuses due to the polar cold that could penalize him. Trump also knows from personal experience that nothing should be taken for granted since the Republican caucuses are secret and this could hold surprises. In 2016, he was ahead in all the polls in Iowa, but in the end it was Texas Senator Ted Cruz who claimed victory.
The latest poll by the Des Moines Register confirms the rise of Nikki Haley and there is optimism among the former ambassador's staff, although "nothing is taken for granted. Iowa has the chance, the first in the country, to voice the desire for a new generation of conservative leaders like Nikki Haley instead of Donald Trump himself." A solid second place for the former ambassador could change the race for the White House, allowing her to arrive at the New Hampshire primary - where she has strong support - with the wind in her sails and present herself as the real alternative to Trump. The road to 2024 for Haley, however, is not easy: the consensus among potential voters without a degree is only 3% while Trump dominates unchallenged in this range. The one who has the most to lose on election night is DeSantis.
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The former Florida governor has long been considered the biggest threat to the former president. But his campaign never really got off the ground, and Iowa — where he visited all 99 counties — represents a possible decisive test: he will have to prove he is the anti-Trump or drop out of the race. If he were to come third, in fact, it would confirm the Republican Party's fears about his political appeal and would increase the pressure against him to take a step back so as to allow a race. Not least because the longer the battle between Haley and DeSantis drags on, the greater the benefits for Trump. "Winning campaigns don't rely on public data," DeSantis' staff said in commenting on the Des Moines Register survey, noting that the former governor's campaign was "perfect for the expected weather conditions" and benefited from low turnout.
Even if the outcome of the caucuses appears to be a foregone conclusion with Donald Trump's victory, there is still no shortage of suspense. Mindful of past experiences, Iowa will try to avoid another black night in the vote count. In 2012, Mitt Romney was declared the winner of a caucus, but 16 days later, the state's Republican Party, struggling to count the votes, announced that the real winner was actually Rick Santorum. In 2020, the Democratic caucuses were a debacle with huge problems: the army of journalists who had invaded the state for the important event left before the results were known. Everything is now ready for election night. What remains to be seen is how many brave residents will venture to -30 degrees to make their voices heard.
The 2024 U.S. marathon: primaries, conventions and voting - Indices - Ansa.it Kick-off in Iowa, Election Day on November 5 (ANSA)
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