United Kingdom and Gibraltar European Union membership referendum
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There is this sentence, which was heard again and again during the Brexit negotiations: "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" - nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. To this day, ten days before the official exit date of the British, this has not changed.
It is true that Prime Minister Boris Johnson has won the EU a new agreement to regulate the terms of Brexit. But whether it ever comes into force is completely open.
Actually, the government wanted to take a decisive step forward on Saturday. The lower house was to bless Johnson's deal. But the deputies initially refused a clear vote with yes or no. This Monday, the Premier wants to try again. Does he have a chance? And how does it continue? The main background to the Brexit chaos.
1) What did the lower house decide on the weekend?
The majority of MPs voted to withhold consent to Johnson's deal for the time being - until the elements of the agreement were poured into British law. In this way, the risk of unregulated Brexit on 31 October should be eliminated.
Because parliamentarians initially avoided a clear consent or rejection, they automatically forced Johnson to apply for a deferral of the Brexit appointment in Brussels. A statutory deadline expired on Saturday night. Until then, the prime minister would have had to bring the deal through the parliament in order to give up the request for more time.
AP
Johnson speech in the lower house
2) What are Johnson's critics afraid of?
The British Parliament must ratify the withdrawal agreement in two steps:
- On the one hand, the basic approval in the so-called "meaningful vote" is necessary - that choice, in which Johnson's predecessor Theresa May had already failed three times and which was devalued on Saturday by the maneuver of the deputies in their meaningfulness.
- In addition, the agreements must be transferred into British law.
Even in May's time, the "meaningful vote" in the lower house was considered a politically decisive vote, the subsequent legislation rather as a formality. Because under Johnson dominated the mistrust - and much is conceivable: also that the deputies first nod the deal and then a troop of Brexit hardliners brings everything back to case. The consequence would be an exit without agreement. That's what Johnson's opponents wanted to prevent.
3) Can the government just vote again?
Rather unlikely. Ultimately, House Speaker John Bercow decides on Monday afternoon whether he will allow Johnson to bring the deal in unchanged position again. In the past, however, Bercow has already blocked such multiple votes.
Instead, the deputies are now next to debate the withdrawal law. If this passes both Houses of Parliament, Johnson would also be assured of Parliament's general approval.
REUTERS
House Speaker John Bercow
4) Will the Brexit be postponed now?
After Saturday's defeat, Johnson reluctantly applied for a Brexit postponement in Brussels. The prime minister is actually reluctant to do so because he has pledged his predominantly anti-European supporters to leave the European Union on 31 October. The text of the letter, which the government now sent to the EU, was prescribed by law. But Johnson did everything he could to make the proposal ad absurdum: he did not sign the text and explained in two more letters why he considers a deferral actually nonsense.
It is up to the EU to accept this request anyway - and give the British more time. The remaining 27 EU countries must decide unanimously. From Brussels it says, one wants to wait first.
4) Is "No Deal" off the table?
No. If the EU rejects an extension of the withdrawal period and London's deputies disagree with Johnson's deal, the British fly out of the EU on 31 October - without protection.
At least theoretically imaginable would be this scenario: Bercow allows against expectations on Monday to a new vote on Johnson's deal, the Premier wins. In this case, the government could withdraw its application for postponement, the protection against a "no deal" Brexit. The danger that the deal would still fail in the legislative process, but would continue.
5) What possibilities does the opposition have?
Meanwhile, in the ranks of the moderates and Proeuropäer preparations are still in the Brexit fundamentally reorientate - "meaningful vote" or not. If the government introduces the exit law, the opposition wants to enforce amendments with pro-European conservatives. They also hope for the Northern Irish DUP. The former supporters of the Tory minority government actually advocate Brexit. However, there is a lot of frustration in the DUP because Johnson has engaged in negotiations with Brussels for a special status for Northern Ireland.
Niklas Hallen / AFP
Mass demonstration in London
Opportunities could, therefore, above all be the result of attempts to avoid customs and physical checks between Northern Ireland and the British mother island - for example, by leaving the whole of Britain in doubt in the EU Customs Union. Less promising is currently the plan to tie the approval of Johnson's deal to a second referendum. But some MPs are still fighting for it energetically. Hundreds of thousands of demonstrators moved to London for a referendum over the weekend.
However, the government rejects a referendum and any softening of their deal. It can therefore be assumed that Johnson would withdraw a bill amended by Parliament. In that case, he might be heading for "No Deal" or accepting a Brexit reprieve - and next call for new elections.