It's not as if Bodo Ramelow had never gone through this scenario before. But on the contrary. For months, Thuringia's prime minister has been relishing this on almost every occasion: in case of doubt, he simply rules. Even if his red-red-green coalition no longer has a majority.
"I do not have to vote," said the left-wing politician. Or, "I'm just in office."
In fact, there is a peculiarity in the Thuringian state constitution. The Prime Minister also runs the business without a majority of the government until a successor is established. No matter how long that takes.
In the election campaign Ramelow liked to flirt with this rule. Left-wing votes are not lost votes, that should mean, even if it is not enough for the previous coalition with SPD and Greens. Ramelow's opponents saw this as an anti-democratic affront.
State election Thuringia 2019
ARD | ZDF
Extrapolation ARD, 20.44 clock
Second vote result
Shares in percent
CDU
22
-11.5
The left
30.7
+2.5
SPD
8.2
-4.2
AFD
23.6
+13
green
5
-0.7
FDP
5
+2.5
other
5.5
-1.6
allocation of seats
Total: 88
Majority: 45 seats
28
8th
5
5
20
22
The Left (28)
SPD (8)
Green (5)
FDP (5)
CDU (20)
AfD (22)
Source: ARD / Infratest Dimap
Extrapolation ZDF, 20.10 clock
Second vote result
Shares in percent
CDU
22.1
-11.4
The left
30.4
+2.2
SPD
8.1
-4.3
AFD
23.5
+12.9
green
5.1
-0.6
FDP
5.1
+2.6
other
5.7
-1.4
allocation of seats
Total: 88
Majority: 45 seats
28
7
5
5
21
22
The Left (28)
SPD (7)
Green (5)
FDP (5)
CDU (21)
AfD (22)
Source: ZDF / Research Group Elections
Results in detail
But now the election campaign is over. And in Thuringia, the situation is really complicated (follow the events in the news blog) - so complicated that in the end, it would really depend on a single man: Ramelow.
The only left-wing leader of the republic is in a paradoxical situation: he has defied the lousy appearance of his federal party, the devastating bankruptcies in Brandenburg and Saxony. With his Thuringian comrades, he has even outbid the result of 2014 - and brought for his party the best result in a state election ever. The left are now clearly the strongest force in Erfurt. Ramelow is the most popular politician in the country, well beyond party boundaries. Actually, he is the big election winner.
Only: All the positive values are not enough to compensate for the massive weakness of the SPD and Greens. Red-red-green, then everything looks right now, is deselected. At least according to normal political standards. That's why Ramelow is one of the losers of the evening.
At the same time, however, the CDU does not achieve a majority even in a coalition of four with the Social Democrats, Greens and the FDP. And a coalition with the ultra right AfD national association of Björn Höcke have not only excluded the Conservatives, they also would not have enough votes - and would be on top of that politically a real scandal.
So it really looks like this: Ramelow will remain prime minister for the time being - no matter how you turn and turn. As of today, three scenarios are conceivable, in all of which the left would have the leading role.
Scenario I: Red-Red-Green Minority Government
For Ramelow that would probably be the most convenient option. Even if the Greens is not clear whether they make it into the state parliament. The government, which has worked steadily over the past four years, would not require much change. In addition, the left could be inside the appearance of continuing a classic camp alliance. And: The coalition has already taken precautions. The budget for 2020 is already in place, reasonably normal government work would be possible for the time being.
For important votes in the state parliament, it would be more difficult. There Ramelow would depend on the support of CDU or FDP - if the Liberals even come to Parliament. And both parties do not really want to work with the left.
Liberal leader Christian Lindner was on election night but implied that he could imagine supporting a minority government in individual cases. And surely one would make it easier for the FDP to vote only occasionally with a managing government, as with Ramelow officially agreed to tolerate. It would be the moment when the peculiarity of the state constitution comes to fruition.
The question is, how long can such a maximum loose alliance go well - and if there will eventually be new elections. However, blocking the CDU and its top candidate Mike Mohring simply any red-red-green initiative, they would stand in the next election campaign as a destructive cause of unstable conditions there. Advantage Ramelow.
Scenario II: The "R2G2 Coalition"
At least mathematically possible would probably be an alliance of the previous coalition partners - together with the FDP. The fact that the Liberals, of all people, engage in a solid cooperation with the Left, however, requires a lot of political imagination. Probably too much. Both Lindner and the Thuringian FDP candidate therefore excluded this option on Sunday.
Scenario III: Dark Red-Black
Saxony-Anhalt's Prime Minister Reiner Haseloff was asked on Sunday for his opinion on the results in the neighboring country. It must now quickly give a clear government, said the CDU politician. With "a stable partner".
If clear conditions are the criterion, the Union would have to govern with the left. Together they would have a clear majority. But ideologically, both parties are miles apart. But who knows what the call for state political reasoning in the coming days can move.
If anyone on the left could do that splits, then at least Ramelow. He is one of the absolute pragmatists in the party. That he has no fear of contact with the Conservatives, he emphasizes with paternalism again and again - for example, if he celebrates his good relationship with the Schleswig-Holstein CDU head of government Daniel Günther.