The optimism of Singapore is long gone: One and a half years after the first handshake between US President Donald Trump and North Korea's ruler Kim Jong Un, there is still no agreement on the nuclear disarmament of the communist country.
Trump had announced just one day after the Singapore summit that North Korea was "out of nuclear danger" - in fact, Kim estimates that his arsenal will probably be increased to 30-40 nuclear warheads by 2020. Time and again the regime is testing rockets, most recently on Thursday.
At the same time, the time is getting short for an agreement: The North Korean regime demands that by the end of the year, the US would have to make important concessions. "It would be a mistake" to ignore this ultimatum, warned the high-ranking North Korean official Kim Yong Chol a few weeks ago. North Korea expert Rachel Minyoung Lee explains why the regime has set this deadline.
SPIEGEL: Ms. Lee, how serious is Kim Jong Un with his ultimatum?
Lee: North Korea means that very seriously. The deadline was set by Kim Jong Un for the first time in his speech to the Supreme People's Assembly in April. He urged the US to change course by the end of the year.
SPIEGEL: Why did he even commit to this year-end deadline?
Lee: It may have something to do with the fact that Kim said in his New Year's speech in 2019 that he would take a "new path" if he did not agree with the US. In his next New Year's speech, he will have to go into what exactly this "new way" looks like. In April, Kim also thought maybe there would be plenty of time to move the US to another policy by the end of the year.
SPIEGEL: So has Kim miscalculated?
Lee: Maybe. Maybe he also wanted to act quickly after the failed in February summit of Hanoi. However, I think that Kim Jong Un and his leadership have changed their position with the US already in April and more intensively from mid-July.
SPIEGEL: At that time, the regime was testing more missiles again.
Lee: And not only that, national security has become the main theme of relations between the US and North Korea. Kim Jong Un said that US and South Korean military exercises at the end of July are a "threat to national security." That the ruler expresses himself was unusual.
SPIEGEL: Military exercises planned for November have just postponed the US and South Korea. US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper has described this as a "gesture of goodwill." So a concession, so that further talks with North Korea on the nuclear program can take place. Pyongyang continues to refuse the meeting. What exactly does the regime want?
Lee: The Pyongyang message is clear: North Korea does not want to talk about nuclear disarmament until the US "completely and irreversibly reverses its hostile policies." In my opinion, this is the main problem: it is very broad and vague. An "enemy policy" can be anything that considers North Korea "hostile". The statements that have come from North Korea in the past few weeks, we know that Pyongyang demands the following: First, the sanctions must be relaxed and security guarantees are given. Second, the US must completely withdraw or terminate its military exercises with South Korea. Third, North Korea does not consider the opening of a US liaison office in Pyongyang or a statement to end the war sufficient, but wants more comprehensive security guarantees. Fourth, the topic of human rights must not appear before the UN or in important US documents.
SPIEGEL: These are very far-reaching demands. Is North Korea genuinely interested in talks?
Lee: I do not think North Korea is honestly interested in reaching an agreement with the US. We could read that from the state media in the weeks before the last round of nuclear talks that took place in Stockholm and then failed. The fact that they have begun to demand the "complete and irreversible withdrawal of hostile US policy" has made the negotiations even more difficult.
SPIEGEL: How is the US reacting to the threat that they should make significant concessions by the end of the year? Is President Trump even interested in reaching an agreement with North Korea?
Lee: I think Trump is still interested in a deal with North Korea. His decision to postpone Vigilant Ace ...
SPIEGEL: ... that's the name of the joint military maneuver of the USA and South Korea.
Lee: This decision can be seen as an indication of this. Remember he recently tweeted in the direction of Kim Jong Un "See you soon". North Korea is the only diplomatic achievement to boast about. He probably wants to negotiate a deal, even if this is then torn by the Democrats.
SPIEGEL: In one and a half years there has been no progress in talks between the US and North Korea. Can such a great diplomatic initiative succeed in a few weeks?
Lee: No. The only way this can be done is for the US to make concessions. But I am not sure if you are ready for it.
SPIEGEL: What happens if the ultimatum passes without the two sides having come to an agreement?
Lee: Pyongyang's "new road" for 2020 does not seem to be based on diplomacy with the US or South Korea. From the North Korean media, we can see that this way becomes more militaristic. Maybe not quite as aggressive as in 2017, but something like that. I do not think they're testing long-range missiles right at the beginning of the year. The tensions are gradually getting bigger. That North Korea provokes the South - about a battle at sea - I also do not exclude.
SPIEGEL: Near the South Korean border, the North Korean military has just tested under the eyes of Kim Jong Un artillery. A first sign of new provocation?
Lee: Yeah, I think that was an indication of where things could go, a warning from North Korea to the South. The date was no coincidence: the artillery was fired on the ninth anniversary of the bombardment of South Korea's Yeonpyeong Island. That was no coincidence. In April 2020, the parliament will be re-elected in South Korea. Who knows if North Korea does not want to shake up the elections a bit.