Europe
2020 will probably be the year in which it is actually carried out: Brexit. Great Britain has been struggling between implementation, postponement and revision for over three years, now the new conservative majority government under Prime Minister Boris Johnson will create facts.
The British, calmed in this way, will measure their government against other issues below:
- Promised improvements in the health and education system, security and housing market.
- The Scots' quest for independence will also become a major domestic issue.
The fact that Brexit was "done" by January 31, as the prime minister would like to say, will remain a lie. It only gets really complicated afterwards when new economic agreements between London and Brussels have to be signed.
NEIL HALL / EPA-EFE / REX
Will carry out the Brexit: Boris Johnson
The Johnson announcement not to apply for an extension of the transition period in the summer will probably remain a daring assertion, which ultimately will probably be cashed in by reality.
2019 was a super election year for Spain with parliamentary elections in April and again in November. In addition, local and regional elections coincide with the European elections in May.
There are many indications that 2020 will again be characterized by important elections. Because the socialists won again, but they missed the absolute majority. If their boss Pedro Sánchez still has not formed a government in the new year, there is a third ballot.
Sergio Perez / REUTERS
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez faces a third urn gag
The conflict between separatists and constitutionalists in Catalonia is to blame. Regional elections could be brought forward there in spring. In autumn, Basques and Galicians will be called on to redefine their regional parliaments. The EU Commission has already warned that economic growth will slow down, which would create fewer new jobs and unemployment could stagnate at 13 percent.
The first three months of the new year will be crucial for France and its President Emmanuel Macron. In January the government plans to present the proposed law on controversial pension reform. Parliament is due to vote on the reform in February:
- If the government succeeded in implementing the pension reform without making numerous concessions to the unions, Macron would have succeeded, causing many of its predecessors to fail.
- The reputation of the successful reformer would be assured; even the conservative Republicans could not avoid recognizing this.
- If this does not succeed, Macron's failure would be obvious - he would lose credibility
The second showdown is in mid-March in the regional elections. Macron's movement "La République en Marche" is poorly anchored in many cities, small towns and villages.
Yves Herman / REUTERS
France wants to reform: Emmanuel Macron
That is why it is currently trying to form alliances with conservative mayors in order to be represented not only in Paris but also in the province of France. The outcome of the elections is still uncertain here.
For 2020, the new conservative government of Kyriakos Mitsotakis in Greece will primarily be concerned with averting a new humanitarian and political migration crisis. The number of asylum seekers has risen sharply since last summer.
STEPHANIE LECOCQ / EPA-EFE / REX
Doesn't want a new migration crisis: Kyriakos Mitsotakis
Nearly 40,000 people endured inhumane conditions in the five crowded hotspot camps in the Aegean in late November. At the same time, discourse and public opinion have become noticeably more hostile to refugees:
- The Greeks see migration as their country's biggest problem, ahead of the economic situation and unemployment.
- This pressure has prompted the government to tighten migration policy again.
- It passed tougher asylum laws and primarily relied on deterrence. In the coming summer, the previously open camps on the Greek islands are to be sealed off in order to increase the number of return trips and deportations.
Human rights organizations and asylum experts, however, have strong doubts as to whether the hardship will have an effect - especially as long as the EU fails to create a new asylum system with fair burden sharing. They warn of a humanitarian catastrophe.
For the political class in Austria , things can only get better in the new year. Even three months after the general election, it is still not clear who will rule the country in the future. However, the chances for an unorthodox coalition between the conservative ÖVP under ex-chancellor Sebastian Kurz and the Greens are good due to the lack of promising alternatives.
Helmut Fohringer / APA / AFP
Will be chancellor again: Sebastian Kurz
A reissue of the alliance with the right-wing populist FPÖ would be computationally possible, stragetically for the election winner Kurz, but devastating after everything - triggered by the Ibiza video published by SPIEGEL and Süddeutscher Zeitung - came to light about the freedom activists and their affairs.
Ex-Vice-Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache, who was overthrown and burdened with investigation, is considering running for mayor of Vienna in the autumn elections. Hoping for more bizarre stories from the foot of the Vienna Woods.
Italy is facing an ordeal. Prime Minister Guiseppe Conte's new cabinet is a coalition of fear: the five-star movement and the Democratic Party (PD) only cling to each other to keep Matteo Salvini away from power.
Eliano Imperato / AFP
Calls for new elections: ex-interior minister Matteo Salvini
They cannot find their own joint government project - instead, they attack each other on a weekly basis. With this in mind, in 2020 every regional election will be a probation test for the government in Rome:
- At the end of January, the provinces of Emilia Romagna and Calabria, which were governed on the left so far, followed, followed by Tuscany and five other regions.
- Ex-Minister of the Interior Salvini and his Lega party are regularly at the forefront in polls and demand that new elections be held soon.
If the right-wing populist continues its triumphal march through the regions, it will be difficult for stars and social democrats to keep their government.
The big victory of right-wing populists failed to materialize in the summer European elections - but the European Union still has to solve major problems in 2020. The first is Brexit, which is by no means done with the British exit on January 31:
- The transition phase, in which Britain remains practically an EU member without voting rights, only lasts until the end of the year.
- This is an extremely short time for the conclusion of a trade agreement.
- If it is ready in time, there is another chaotic relapse to trade according to WTO rules.
Besides, the EU has to pass an inner ordeal. The Commission wants to bring numerous laws of its "Green New Deal" through the EU Parliament, which has been even more fragmented since the election.
Kenzo Tribouillard / AFP
Wants a "Green New Deal": EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen
At the same time, the member countries are negotiating with hard bandages about the next seven-year budget, which should apply from 2021. From the outside, the global economy is facing a slowdown and new trade conflicts with US President Donald Trump, who has eliminated the only neutral arbitrator with the WTO and who could be tempted to take tough action against international competitors in the election year.
Eastern Europe
A serious constitutional crisis is looming in Poland : the European Court of Justice had rejected parts of the controversial judicial reform and the Polish Supreme Court had followed this decision. According to this, a newly established body for the appointment of judges and a supervisory body are not independent of the parliamentary majority.
This is held by the national Catholic PiS party, which has already submitted to the constitutional tribunal and has been heavily criticized for this in Brussels. How PiS deals with the latest court decisions is currently unclear:
- respect,
- challenge,
- to ignore?
The controversy over the rule of law in Poland could also affect the presidential election in the summer. The national conservative incumbent Andrzej Duda has high approval ratings.
Andrzej Duda / REUTERS
Has high approval ratings: President Andrzej Duda
Malgorzata Kidawa-Blonska, who was a leading candidate in the October general election in October - is up for the Liberals. Former EU Council President Donald Tusk has already canceled a comeback in Warsaw.
Zuzana Caputova has been the head of state in Slovakia since last summer. She had won the presidential election as a political newcomer. The parliamentary elections on February 29 will show whether their liberal, pro-European party "Progressive Slovakia" can build on their success or, as in neighboring countries, triumph right-wing populist forces.
Carsten Koall / Getty Images
Liberal and pro-European: Zuzana Caputova
Caputova had been fueled by a wave of outrage at the political establishment. Many Slovaks have mistrusted the ruling left-wing populist party Smer since investigative journalist Jan Kuciak was murdered in February 2018. Mafia boss Marian Kocner is on trial in Bratislava for the attack. He is said to have maintained excellent contacts with senior Smer politicians.
Volodymyr Selenskyj has big plans: He not only wants to renew Ukraine , put an end to corruption, but above all bring peace to his country. War has been raging in the east, occupied by separatists loyal to Moscow, for more than five years: almost every day, people shoot and kill people on the 450 km front line. Selenskyj, ex-actor and TV producer, wants to end this.
Efrem Lukatsky / AP / DPA
Volodymyr Selenskyj: First a comedian, now President of Ukraine
The situation for a Ukrainian president has never been so difficult:
- The US has largely stayed out of the Trump Trump Ukraine scandal,
- Chancellor Angela Merkel, a long-standing supporter of Kiev, is cautious.
And yet Selenskyj was able to start negotiations with Vladimir Putin, also because he adopted a different tone towards the Kremlin: pragmatic but clear on the matter. In April there will be a second Normandy summit with France and Germany. It will mainly depend on Putin what will come of it.
On May 9, 2020, Waldimir Putin wants to gather the heads of state of the world in Red Square. Then Russia celebrates the victory over Nazi Germany in World War II 75 years ago with a military parade.
Evgenia Novozhenina / DPA
For Vladimir Putin, things could not go better in terms of foreign policy
It will also be a day of demonstrating military strength. Putin in Syria and eastern Ukraine shows that he uses them to assert his interests. In terms of foreign policy, things could hardly go better for him: the United States, by which Russia traditionally measures its strength, is occupied with Donald Trump, Europe with Brexit.
Putin, the strong man, the Russians like this picture - and yet his popularity has declined. Putin found it hard to believe in rosy economic and social development after 20 years. The Kremlin has responded to protests with repression. That does not bode well for 2020.
middle East
What is threatening in Spain is a reality in Israel : Because Benjamin Netanyahu and his challenger Benny Gantz were too close together in two new elections last year, and there are no clear majorities in the Knesset, a third time must be elected. It will be seen on March 2 whether Netanyahu will still be a politician at all.
AP Photo / Oded Balilty, File
Benjamin Netanyahu is indicted - as the first incumbent prime minister in the country's history
The 70-year-old is the first incumbent prime minister in the history of the Jewish state to be charged. The allegations against him are: fraud, bribery and infidelity.
How the election and the process will end is open. The only thing that is clear is that Israel will not come to rest in 2020 in terms of foreign and security policy. The conflicts with radical Islamic Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the Shiite militia Hezbollah in Lebanon and the shadow war with Iran throughout the Middle East will remain high on every government's agenda - with or without Netanyahu.
A good year after the murder of opposition journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Saudi Arabia took over the presidency of the G20. The kingdom also hosts the heads of government of the world's richest countries as hosts at the summit in Riyadh in late November.
King Salman and his son, the mighty Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, 34, will present the desert realm as a modern investment location. The ultra-conservative country is going through the most profound changes since its foundation.
Alexey Nikolsky / Sputnik / Kremlin / Pool / EPA-EFE / REX
Mohammed bin Salman - ruler with a hard hand
Crown Prince Mohammed grants many new social freedoms, but leads politically with a firm hand. Critics are arrested and freedom of expression is as low as it has been for decades. Chancellor Merkel is likely to have a difficult journey.
The year 2019 looked good for Bashar al-Assad, the dictator in Syria : After his troops, but above all the Russian Air Force and Iranian-commanded militias from several countries, recaptured almost all rebel areas, US President Donald also came in October Trump opposed.
SANA / AFP
Bashar al-Assad actually won the war
After its decision to withdraw from the Kurdish northeast, the Kurdish militia party of the YPG resigned itself, at least formally, to the rule of Damascus. But as successful as the regime appears militarily, things have been going downhill economically since October:
- Iran, the main financer of the half-destroyed country to date, can no longer pay as the US sanctions strangle it economically.
- The banks in Lebanon, through which Damascus has so far circumvented sanctions and provided themselves with foreign currency, are on the brink of collapse due to the mismanagement and corruption of the government there.
As a result, the exchange rate of the Syrian pound has plummeted since October. And will continue to fall. What will mean for the winter at the beginning of the year that Damascus can no longer finance grain and oil imports. Assad has the power back - but no one who pays for it.
Turkey has experienced a military coup in recent years, elections, terrorist attacks, a constitutional referendum. No news would be good news for the country in 2020. It is not very likely that this will happen. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is struck like never before in his career.
Lucas Jackson / REUTERS
Recep Tayyip Erdogan leads Turkey into a troubled year
Sections of his party are up in arms, ex-prime minister Ahmet Davtoglu has already founded his own, and ex-economics minister Ali Babacan should soon follow. In addition, the war in Syria continues to affect Turkey. Erdogan has sent troops across the border. In the new year he will have to deal with the consequences of the operation.
America
The Democrats in the United States want to chase President Donald Trump out of office. In 2020, they will probably start two attempts. Attempt one is the impeachment procedure.
The House of Representatives, in which the Democrats hold the majority, recently voted to open one. The charges include abuse of power and interference with Congress investigations. The Democrats accuse Trump of urging Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selenskyj to investigate his democratic rival Joe Biden.
AP
Will continue to be US President in 2020: Donald Trump
The Senate decides whether Trump will be removed from office. A two-thirds majority would be required for impeachment. However, this is currently not foreseeable, because Trumps Republicans are in the majority in the Senate.
There is every reason to believe that the Democrats will have to make a second attempt: the presidential election in early November. This could then close the circle for impeachment proceedings: Biden is considered the most promising of the remaining democratic applicants.
Almost a year ago in Venezuela, the attempt to overthrow Nicolás Maduro started with a lot of momentum. Today Venezuela's authoritarian head of state still sits in the Miraflores presidential palace.
Sputnik / Alexei Druzhinin / Kremlin / REUTERS
Has sat out the revolution: Nicolás Maduro, the ruler of Venezuela
His opponent Juan Guaidó failed to pull the military on his side. US sanctions were also unable to overthrow Maduro. Meanwhile, talks between his government and the opposition have been put on hold. The Anti-Maduro front also crumbled recently:
- John Bolton, who has long been the driving force behind Venezuela in the government of US President Donald Trump, lost his job as National Security Advisor.
- Several South American governments that support Guaidó are struggling with domestic protests.
- And a corruption scandal is plaguing the Venezuelan opposition.
The National Assembly will also be elected in 2020. It is the last bastion of the opposition, Guaidó is currently its president. Maduro should use the choice to split his opponents' camp.
The crisis in Venezuela affects the entire region. Nowhere is this more evident than in neighboring Colombia . 4.5 million Venezuelans have left their country in the past five years; almost a third of them have settled in Colombia.
NICOLAS GALEANO HANDOUT / EPA-EFE / REX
The Venezuelan crisis is also his problem: Colombia's President Iván Duque
If the situation in the crisis state worsens, these numbers are likely to increase significantly by the end of 2020. In Colombia, where another million refugees are expected, hospitality could turn into hostility. The country was simmering recently:
- Hundreds of thousands pressured conservative President Iván Duque at rallies.
- Among other things, its political camp reacted by stirring resentment against Venezuelans.
In the coming year, not only the additional refugees could destabilize Colombia: the Maduro government grants Colombian guerrilla groups shelter in Venezuela. Observers believe that armed conflict in the border area is possible and do not rule out a war between the two countries.
In the Amazon region of Brazil , deforestation has recently been higher than it has been since 2008. Between August 2018 and July 2019, according to the Brazilian space institute Inpe, almost 9,800 square kilometers of rainforest were destroyed - an area the size of Cyprus and an increase of almost 30 percent compared to the same period in the previous year.
Ueslei Marcelino / REUTERS
Jair Bolsonaro has moved Brazil to the right
Environmentalists and indigenous groups blame Brazil's ultra-right President Jair Bolsonaro for creating a climate in which farmers, lumberjacks and gold miners felt encouraged to do more and more deforestation:
- Bolsonaro is closely allied with the agricultural lobby and has relaxed environmental regulations.
- He wants to open up more areas for agriculture, mining and energy generation.
- The head of state recently reacted to criticism with hostility to scientists and activists and with conspiracy theories.
The Amazon has lost a fifth of its original forest area. Some scientists believe that the rainforest could soon reach a "tipping point" and could be irretrievably lost.
In Chile there have recently been mass protests and violent clashes between security forces and demonstrators. In a report, the United Nations accused the army and police of serious human rights violations. The protests were initially directed against an increase in ticket prices in local public transport. The demonstrators also criticize:
- low wages,
- high costs for education and health,
- and the growing gap between rich and poor in the country.
The strongly criticized conservative President Sebastián Piñera has promised a new constitution with more say for the population. A referendum is planned for April.
Alberto Valdes / EPA-EFE / REX
Is criticized: President Sebastián Piñera
According to surveys, almost nine out of ten Chileans want to vote for a new constitution. The current one was enacted in 1980 during General Augusto Pinochet's dictatorship and focuses power in the central government.
Africa
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, an energetic reformer, is starting 2020 with the tailwind of the Nobel Peace Prize. In his acceptance speech in Oslo, he promised free and fair elections in Ethiopia for May. If they succeed, they will be a great test for Abiy as well as for the Ethiopians. There have never been any real elections in the country with more than 100 million inhabitants.
Britta Pedersen / DPA
Must deliver now: Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed
Abiy's plan to get a ballot box for Ethiopia's remodeling is risky. The prime minister believes in the power of "medemer" - Amharic for the conviction that you are stronger together. He wants to transform the dictatorial party EPRDF, which he heads, into the Ethiopian Progress Party (EPP) and win with it.
But since Abiy's launch, hundreds of thousands have been displaced and many people have been killed in ethnically motivated struggles. Abiy says he wants peace but has to send soldiers. It is revenge that he once exiled extremists back into the country. Their ethnonationalist agitation could lead to even more violence in the election campaign.
Since Mali had almost fallen to Islamists in 2013 after a Touareg uprising, the Sahel state has been in a dangerous stalemate: with the help of France and other EU countries, the national army is at least trying to defend the streets and cities of the vast desert state. The UN blue helmets of the Minusma mission - the most dangerous in the world - are trying to protect civilians.
AP
Depends on Europe's help: Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, the President of Mali
Most recently, the Islamists made up ground, pushing the national army back on the border with Niger. France now wants to intensify the armed struggle against the terrorists. The previous mission "Barkhane" (sickle dune) transforms Paris into the more robust combat mission "Tacouba" (saber) - and wants help for this from Germany too. Mali is an important symbol for the entire Sahel region. If Mali were to fall, it would send shock waves through all of West Africa and the Sahara.
2020 will show that after the fall of long-term dictator Umar al-Bashir and the successful revolution against the military, does the population really have power in Sudan ? Or is the eleven-member sovereign council, which officially forms the head of the state until 2022, despite the slight outnumber of civilians, still being handed over to the so far omnipotent military?
AFP
Is he the new strong man in Sudan? Mohamed Hamdan Daglo "Hemeti", warlord and new politician
Despite all the joy at more women’s rights and dwindling state violence, the Sudanese continue to be plagued by the same economic crisis that had been a driving force behind the fall of Bashir:
- Inflation is still 40 percent.
- People like the state can hardly afford anything anymore.
- According to a current UN report, there is even a lack of money for the import of vital medicines.
- Six million people need food aid, and the number is rising.
If the civilian part of the transitional government consolidates its power and gets the economy going, 2020 can be the year of a real start.
Asia
In 2020, the last of the almost 1.4 billion Chinese are likely to get out of absolute poverty. In 1980, more than 850 million people lived below the poverty line, and many of them have now moved up to the middle class. But prosperity is increasingly unevenly distributed in China - a problem that is exacerbated by declining growth, the high level of indebtedness of many companies and the US-China trade dispute.
Florence Lo / REUTERS
Strong man in Beijing: President Xi Jinping
Politically, the presidential election in Taiwan on January 11 will determine Beijing's agenda: China regards the island republic as a breakaway province and is striving for reunification. The CP's hope that President Tsai Ing-wen will be replaced by a more Beijing-friendly candidate is unlikely to come true: China's tough course in the Hong Kong conflict has frightened many Taiwanese people - and improved Tsai's chances of winning an election.