The new decade begins in Baghdad as the old one ended: with violence. Hundreds of Shiite militia officers attacked the heavily guarded US embassy in the Iraqi capital again on New Year's morning.
Even tear gas and stun grenades from the security forces do not seem to deter the attackers, who have been in front of the area since New Year's Eve. For US President Donald Trump, the ongoing storm on the embassy in Baghdad is devastating news at the beginning of the 2020 super election year. The most important questions and answers.
Who is behind the violent protests?
The regime in Tehran is believed to be behind the attack. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's chief leader, said his country had nothing to do with the riots. "Be logical, what you are not," he said to Trump, according to the state broadcaster Irib. "The fact is that the people in this region hate the United States because of their crimes."
However, there is evidence that and why Iran is alleged to be steering the violent protests:
- Last Friday, a US citizen was killed and four others injured in a missile attack on a military base near the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk.
- US troops then reportedly attacked Kata'ib Hezbollah units in Iraq and Syria over the weekend. Five targets are said to have been hit, including weapons depots and command centers.
- The Kata'ib Hezbollah, also known as the Hezbollah Brigades, are Shiite militias controlled by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. They are not to be confused with the Lebanese Hezbollah militia.
- The Hezbollah brigades are part of the so-called People's Mobilization Units, a powerful Shiite militia alliance in Iraq. The latter fought the Sunni terrorist militia "Islamic State" (IS) in the two-country region and has now built up a state within the state. (Read more about the background here: Iran's Shiite International)
The pro-Iranian militias were officially incorporated into the Iraqi security apparatus this summer. But the Shiite fighters are still considered a Trojan horse from Tehran.
When the protesters tried to storm the U.S. Embassy on New Year's Eve, they were then visited by senior cadres of the People's Mobilization Units, including: Jamal Jafaar Ibrahimi, powerful Hezbollah Brigade commander and Vice-Chief of the People's Mobilization Units.
DPA
Jamal Jafaar Ibrahimi (2nd from left) in front of the US Embassy in Baghdad
Ibrahimi, a 65-year-old man who gave up his engineering job many years ago and now has around 25,000 fighters under his command, maintains excellent relations with Iran. His appearance in front of the embassy was a demonstration of power by Tehran.
How does the US react?
The attack on the embassy is likely to evoke memories of 1975, 1979, and 2012 in many Americans, who have burned deep into their collective memory:
- In 1975, the last US diplomats fled from the besieged Saigon by helicopter from the Viet Cong fighters.
- In 1979, followers of the Islamic Revolution overran the US embassy in Tehran and took more than 50 diploma hostages.
- In 2012, Islamist fighters attacked the United States consulate in the Libyan city of Benghazi , where the ambassador was murdered, among other things.
So far it has not come to Baghdad. President Trump tweeted on Tuesday: "The Anti-Benghazi!" But the US is alarmed. The Pentagon has already responded, sending 120 elite unit soldiers to the Iraqi capital to protect the embassy, which is almost the size of the Vatican City, the smallest country in the world. Another 750 soldiers were transferred to neighboring Kuwait.
AP
A U.S. helicopter ready for use in Baghdad
For Trump, the attack is out of time. This year is a super election year in the United States. He wants to be re-elected president in 2020 - and is campaigning to bring the U.S. Army back from the Middle East. But nothing will come of it so quickly. Because of the smoldering conflict with Iran around the Persian Gulf, he had thousands of additional soldiers transferred to the region.
What is the Iraqi government doing?
The government in Baghdad is weak, but the Shiite militias controlled by Iran and their political leaders, who have become part of the state apparatus, are strong. If you want, a demonstration can end in a bloodbath, as the past few months have shown.
DPA
Demonstrators storm the U.S. Embassy grounds
Tens of thousands of Iraqis have been protesting the mismanagement and corruption of the elites since autumn. The security forces act brutally against the demonstrators: tear gas grenades are used, rubber bullets, but also live ammunition; there are always reports of targeted, fatal headshots. According to official figures, more than 320 people have died since the protests began.
The fact that a violent mob was able to move through the actually heavily secured "Green Zone" in Baghdad to the embassy in the past 48 hours and - unlike the democracy activists in the past weeks - was not stopped shows who really has the power in Iraq. It is Iran that has built a satellite state in the two-river region since the fall of ex-dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003. The regime in Tehran will not voluntarily give it up.