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(CNN) - Even with Julián Castro's departure from the 2020 Democratic presidential race on Thursday, there are still 14 - yes, 14! - people who run for the right to face President Donald Trump in November.
But most of those people have little to no chance of winning the Democratic nomination. Now we are one month away from the Iowa primary meetings, and if they are still at 1% (or close to it), well, that is not going to be possible for them to be candidates.
- Look: Democratic presidential candidates defend the political trial against Trump
With that in mind, we are reducing our biweekly ranking of 10 candidates to just five. But that does not mean that if your candidate did not pass this last and most painful cut, he or she has no chance, or they will not play an important role in the victory of the nomination.
For example, Andrew Yang, who has just announced that he raised more than $ 16 million in the last three months of 2019, seems to be growing in strength and support as the first votes approach, but he simply lost the cut for the ranking of this week. Or the former mayor of New York, Michael Bloomberg, who continues to inject tens of millions of dollars into television commercials destined to catapult its relevance on Super Tuesday, in early March.
Remember: We re-qualify these candidates every two weeks. So the fact that your candidate has not reached this Top 5 does not mean that he will never beat the Top 5 in the future.
Here is the list:
5. Amy Klobuchar: Minnesota's main senator is the only candidate out of the Top 4 who has a realistic chance of winning in Iowa right now. Klobuchar had a series of successful debates in December. She also has one of the best cases of eligibility to work on it. And yet, Klobuchar doesn't go anywhere in the national polls. It has few endorsements. The big question is, what would happen even if Klobuchar won in Iowa? It is not clear that she can take advantage of that victory. (Previous classification: 5)
4. Elizabeth Warren: It is a sign of the slowdown in the Massachusetts Senator campaign that, as the deadline for the end of the year fundraiser was approaching, sent increasingly desperate emails and tweets begging to supporters a little more money. It is also revealing that, although people like Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders (and Yang) published on January 1 the total raised in their campaigns until the end of 2019, there was not a look from the world of Warren on how much he had collected in recent Three months of the year. Warren still has the best organization in Iowa and is also competitive in New Hampshire. But if you don't win any of those states, it could mean big problems for your chances. (Previous classification: 4)
3. Pete Buttigieg: It's clear: the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, begins 2020 in a much stronger position than the one he started in 2019. Buttigieg raised nearly $ 25 million in the fourth quarter of 2019, and is close to the top of the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire. A victory in both elections could make Buttigieg the man to win by the nomination. The problem is that he continues to suffer a lot with non-white voters (for example, he obtained 2% in our last national poll). Buttigieg may end up being just a phenomenon in Iowa and New Hampshire. (Previous classification: 3)
2. Bernie Sanders: The huge sum of more than $ 34 million from Sanders in the last quarter of fundraising is a testament to three things: 1) His unequaled support on the Internet 2) His momentum in the race in recent months and 3) your ability to stay in the 2020 race as long as you want (if you don't win the nomination). No other candidate in the race has all three factors in their favor. (Previous classification: 2)
1. Joe Biden: The former vice president is as close to the nomination as no one has been in this cycle. Biden finally had a good debate last month. His leadership in the national surveys is not going anywhere thanks to the strong support of the black community. Biden continues to accumulate endorsements, and seems to have had a solid total in terms of fundraising in the fourth quarter. It also continues to be the best choice in a vote against Trump, which is a quality that is at the head of most voters. Still, Biden could easily lose Iowa and New Hampshire. A defeat in those states could make your favorite status disappear quickly. (Previous classification: 1)
2020 Democratic candidates