Senior sources in Jerusalem and Gaza confirm that Hamas is not behind the barrage fired on the Gaza envelope • "Israel Today" probe has traced the easing of the Gaza Strip, given the promise of peace • Increased fishing space and increased Qatari money flow - but terrorist organization has difficulty controlling rogue factions • Interpretation
The 86th Return March. What did they achieve in the Gaza Strip? // Photo: AFP
Senior officials in Israel and Gaza confirmed Wednesday that Hamas is not behind the recent launches, and it is likely the Islamic Jihad's military wing - al-Quds Brigades. Only a few weeks ago, the violent events on the Gaza border came to a three-month lag. Two years after the beginning of the "return marches", which began as an initiative from the territory adopted by Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar as a means of pressure on Israel, examined the state of the Gaza Strip and whether the violent events led to a change in the territory.
Over a period of 21 months, a closed circle has developed: demonstration on Friday, violations of order, attempts to injure IDF soldiers, wounded or killed Palestinians, launches into Israel, iron dome interceptions, and finally an air strike in the Gaza Strip. Major Terrorism: The blast balloons and incendiary kites that caused agricultural and environmental destruction, the nightly harassment units used to raise tires, fire fireworks and attempt to cross the perimeter fence, and of course, rocket and shell fire.
Qatar projects in the Gaza Strip // Photo: Qatar Rehabilitation Committee
On the one hand, Hamas suffered damage to terrorist infrastructures, on the other hand, tensions were maintained and southern residents suffered most of the mental and economic damage. Five Israelis were also killed in the round last May. And in the summer of 2018, a Givati fighter fell from Palestinian snipers. But were there any significant relief that Hamas was able to achieve for Gaza residents?
The marine space
From January 2009 to the end of a cloud pillar in November 2012, the Navy's 916 fleet consumed only three nautical miles from the Gaza Strip, all along the coast. Recently, the Coordinator of Government Operations in the Occupied Territories, Major General Kamil Abu Rukon, announced an extension to 15 nautical miles.
The fishing area in the Gaza Strip according to UN data. Over time, there have been changes in the range
Only between April and September 2019 did 14 changes in the fishing zone permitted by UN data. These changes were used as a deterrent over the past decade. But the first two significant expansions, from three nautical miles to six, and six miles to ten, came after understandings with Hamas on a cloud and cliff face. The third significant expansion was implemented following relatively limited fighting rounds with minimal casualties for Hamas personnel.
And yet, even after expanding the fishing zone, it is not 15 nautical miles along the entire Gaza Strip. According to the United Nations report from November, the area allowed for fishing is divided into three main sections. A southern rectangle, stretching from the Egyptian border to the Deir al-Balah area in the center of the Strip, allows up to 15 nautical miles to sail. A pentagon that starts from Deir al-Balah and extends to Gaza City, where you can sail between three and six miles. And a square of up to three nautical miles from Gaza City, to the beach adjacent to Beit Lahiya. Other areas are prohibited for fishing.
According to the United Nations, between January and August 2019, there was a 34% increase in the number of fishermen compared to the restrictive period last year. However, the increase in income was less than 10%. The estimates indicate that the fisheries sector supports some 18,000 families in Gaza.
The bottom line: Hamas has achieved considerable growth in the fishing area without operations, but has failed to leverage its significant relief to Gaza residents. Moreover, Israel can reduce the space to the extent that quiet is disrupted.
Qatari money
In late December, the cash envelopes from Qatar were distributed for the same month. In March 2020, Doha is expected to renew its transfer of funds to a Hamas-controlled strip. The official website of the Gaza Qatari Rehabilitation Committee describes astronomical sums of money declared to be transferred from Doha. Since the former Emir's visit, Sheikh Hamed bin Khalifa al-Thani in the Gaza Strip in 2012, more than $ 1 billion has been poured.
Qatari Rehabilitation Committee data // Background photo: Reuters
2012
A $ 407 million grant. The funds were given as part of about 110 housing unit projects, roads, infrastructure, health centers, agriculture and more.
2013
A $ 5 million grant following the winter that severely damaged Gaza infrastructure.
2014
A grant following a solid $ 30 million cliff operation. The aid went to the benefit of hospitals and their employees, generators, Russian homeowners. Funds were also transferred to Hamas' civil security.
2015
A grant to rebuild 1,000 completely demolished $ 50 million housing units.
2016
A $ 34 million grant as a "reward" to Gaza officials
2017
$ 12 million grant for power supply
2018
"$ 9 million urgent relief grant" and a $ 13.7 million national Qatari national grant.
2019
A $ 150 million grant to benefit the power supply and officials' salaries. In addition, a $ 480 million grant was granted to the Palestinians.
As part of these funds, we will note that almost every month, in the Gaza Post Offices, grants totaling one hundred dollars were distributed to one hundred thousand needy families. That means ten million dollars.
Bottom line: The Qatari cash flow has intensified and even renewed. On the other hand, the Palestinian Authority has prevented salaries being transferred to officials in the Gaza Strip, and the United States has decided to stop financially supporting the Palestinian refugee agency UNRWA. In addition, talk in Israel of projects such as a floating port has turned out to be empty.
Also remember that money does not come for free. The inaugural statement is expected to make an impact in decision making. Moreover, Doha has been subject to diplomatic boycott by Arab states in recent years. So if Qatar feels that the aid does not improve with her condition, she may not hesitate to stop the flow of funds.
Despite the Qatari aid, the World Bank figures published by the Guardian show, the unemployment rate in the Strip has grown from 29% in 2012 to 53% at the end of 2019. Among young people, the number is now rising to 67%. Also, about half of the population earns $ 5.5 a day. Not something Hamas can take pride in, and cause for concern for Israel.
The losses and casualties
According to Gaza Health Ministry data, from March 30, 2018 to November 23, 2019, 316 people were killed as a result of IDF gunfire and the use of means of demonstration. 304 men and 12 women. 62 killed were under 18. 35,703 people were injured To a varying degree in order violations, 19,464 of them were evacuated to the hospital for medical treatment, the others were treated in the field.
Notably, some 3,000 people suffered from tear gas inhalation and other injuries. While most of the casualties who were evacuated to the hospital, 12,221 people suffered limb injuries. Due to a chronic shortage of medical supplies and supplies, including antibiotics, some of the injured had to undergo amputations due to the spread of infections.
Also, the first months of the parades, during which the events of "Earth Day" and "Nakba Day" were the deadliest. 13,900 people were injured, though much of it did not require evacuation to the hospital. The large number of injured people loaded on the health system.
The fact that the Gaza Ministry of Health has counted casualties who have not been evacuated to a hospital may indicate the weighting of the number of wounded to pressure international mediators. For example, MDA does not report any minor injuries that occurred. In Gaza, it seems, every demonstrator who fell while fleeing tear gas.
Bottom line: This is a relatively small loss for Hamas. In a week-long cloud column operation, 223 Gazans were killed, most of them terrorists. In a solid cliff that lasted about two months, 2,203 Gazans were killed, including terrorists and civilians. On the other hand, the huge number of injured people has burdened the hospitals and welfare authorities.
Power supply
According to the UN Humanitarian Affairs Coordination Office, there has been a significant improvement in hospital electricity supply.
In an agreement between the Ministry of Health and the electricity company in Gaza, it was decided to connect more lines and the availability of electricity increased from 13 hours to 22 hours a day, in nine of the 14 hospitals in the Gaza Strip. In the summer, a Japan-funded solar power station used by Nasser Hospital was also inaugurated. In May, the United Nations and Japan inaugurated four additional solar power plants, used by medical laboratories in four hospitals, in Gaza.
The past decade has been accompanied by a chronic electricity shortage in the Gaza Strip. As a result of the conflict between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority over fuel tax exemptions and the collection of revenues from electricity consumers, Ramallah has cut its electricity transfer payments to Gaza. At the same time, Egypt's power line also suffered from malfunctions. The result was a twenty-hour initiated power outage.
Since October 2018, and following the demonstrations, additional fuel has been injected into the Gaza power plant with $ 60 million in Qatari funding. This increased the supply from seven hours to 15-14 hours a day. In May 2019, Doha pledged for additional funding, this time for $ 180 million, which ended late last month.
The bottom line: Gaza electricity supply has improved, but infrastructure is still poor.
The crossings to Gaza
Since July 2018, Rafah Crossing has been operating relatively continuously. On the one hand, this is a significant relief, since since the rise of the a-sisi regime to power, the transition has been subject to restrictions. On the other hand, even throughout 2018 the crossing was open in both directions in just 188 days. During this time, the Gazans passed about 60,000 thousand times.
The opening of the crossing came at the same time as the Egyptian army's Egyptian war in the smuggling tunnels along the Gaza border. Arab sources reported that most of the tunnels were destroyed. Some of those that remain are actually "reconstructed tunnels" as workers dig new openings for the section, which is blocked in both directions.
According to a source in the Palestinian Border and Crossings Authority, who spoke to the United Nations, there are two lists of passersby in Rafah. One controlled by Hamas and one run by Egyptians. As a result, travelers have argued that Hamas and Egyptian officials need to be bribed to ensure passage, otherwise there is no explanation for the situation. Where people wait for a transit pass for months, while others get approved within a month.
In an interview with Al Jazeera, the Qatari envoy claimed that Egypt and Hamas also charge double tax on goods passing through the crossing. He claims the strip imports $ 45 million worth of goods from Egypt each month. Egyptian intelligence is charged a cumulative $ 15 million in commodity commodities, and Hamas is charging its own $ 12 million.
From the beginning of January 2018, there has been an increase in the average number of Palestinians allowed to leave Gaza every month through the Erez crossing, in its northern border. Throughout Hamas's rule, most residents are not eligible to apply for a visa. Those who do get approval are those who need advanced medical care outside the Strip and its escorts, merchants and members of international organizations. Exceptional humanitarian cases are also granted. As mentioned, the average number rose from 2017, but it was lower than the two years prior. During these years, the average number of departures ranged from 6,900 to 15,027. According to the Ministry of Government Coordination in the Occupied Territories, 30,442 people passed through the Erez crossing last October.
Recently, al-Akhbar newspaper reported that Israel intends to approve 5,000 workers from Gaza. This number is reported to increase. Also, in recent weeks, the Strip has been allowed to export products abroad such as Krambo and strawberries.
Bottom line: Two of the main crossings to Israel and Egypt are open more days than in the pre-demonstration period. And yet, Hamas cannot boast about the closure, which depends on the continued industrial silence.
Both sides chose an intermediate position, which is preferable to the alternatives
Whether it is a regular decision by the political echelon, or in a series of attempts to "tame" the Gaza Strip, the current situation in the South is the result of the following process: In the absence of effective, long-term solutions, such as the series includes Hamas or a major military operation, in Israel the understanding that escalation will lead to the same point exactly. Thus, the tactics used by the security system have become more significant, with a key goal of which is not to go to war.
At the same time, in the Gaza Strip, the humanitarian crisis worsened as a result of a confrontation with the Palestinian Authority, cutting US funds from the UN, directing the home front to Hamas by Arab states, and removing a large part of Egypt's smuggling tunnels along the Rafah border, which served as the organization's "lifeline." Israeli on the Strip.
The Hamas leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, understood the heart of Israel. But he was looking for a way to get relief without paying a political or political price. We were, a commitment to a long-term calm or prisoner release deal, which does not include the prisoners of the "Shalit deal", measures that could have hampered the status of Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Order violations and kites were intended to squeeze relief while leaving room for maneuver for Israel, which was not interested in the war. The Arab boycott of Qatar was played by Sinwar.
Hamas' effort to maintain a balance has been subject to constant shaking, mainly by "return marches," as casualties have drawn response from elements in the Gaza Strip, which did not necessarily remove it. Central to these factors, the commander of the Northern Brigade in Islamic Jihad, Baha Abu Alta, was eliminated in the latest round. However, the reality is that the proliferation of terrorist cells in the Gaza Strip does not allow complete silence. Thus, Israel found itself at the heart of apparent calm, dependent on the good will of every intermediate terrorist.
On the other hand, reducing the violent incidents on Alta's fence and elimination as a deterrent may reinforce a more established calm. As mentioned, the relief that Hamas obtained is dependent on Israel, which can reduce the fishing space at will or prevent the transfer of Qatari money. This is a huge disadvantage for Hamas, which has not really succeeded in breaking the borders of the closure.
Ultimately, the status quo developed as a result of reluctance in Israel and Hamas in a long-term war or arrangement. In Jerusalem, the losses, paralysis and international damage involved in the war were not enthusiastic. Hamas is reluctant to become a "second Palestinian authority", to settle for the Gaza Strip alone and to give up the option of taking over Judea and Samaria. The result is an intermediate situation, a little bit of a series and a little bit of war, which is not good for both sides, but they prefer the alternatives.