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The Democratic battle for New Hampshire 4:25
(CNN) - US President Donald Trump gathered his forces on Monday night with a rally in New Hampshire, where people were in the freezing rain for hours to hear him speak, just as the race between Democrats to decide who will face him in November he feels less and less settled.
The first primary ballots were issued in certain sparsely inhabited areas starting at midnight, to give the results this Tuesday morning.
New Hampshire is not exactly a blue state (democrat): don't forget that the state of 'Live free or die' is an undecided state. (One small, but still). Trump lost it to Hillary Clinton by less than 3,000 votes in 2016. Inside Elections qualifies him as "tending to the Democrats" in 2020.
New Hampshire is also where Iowa's momentum can die: Barack Obama was furious from Iowa in 2008 and his defeat to Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire that year caused a great primary season during which many people wondered if the party could join in support of winner.
There is no real favorite: today they ask the same thing. But while in 2008, Clinton and Obama had made a two-person career in New Hampshire - she won with 39% versus her rival who won 38% - today still many more Democrats are in the field. In 2008, former Vice President Joe Biden retired after finishing fifth in Iowa. Today he hopes to resist at least until South Carolina.
- What do Latinos in New Hampshire think about presidential candidates?
A CNN follow-up survey of Democratic primary voters conducted by the New Hampshire University Survey Center on the eve of the primary showed no candidate with even 30% support. Bernie Sanders, the favorite in the poll, had 29% and Pete Buttigieg had 22%.
Half of the primary Democratic voters in New Hampshire have not decided. CNN Poll Director Jennifer Agiesta said that “only half of the likely primary voters in New Hampshire say they have definitely decided who they will vote for, which means that despite the stability in numbers during the follow-up period six days, there is still room for preferences to change. ”
Biden, the ex-favorite, has become negative in some of his colleagues, considering Buttigieg as too inexperienced and Sanders as too socialist.
"Bernie has qualified himself, a democratic socialist," Biden said. "I think that's the label the president will put on everyone who supports Bernie, if he becomes a candidate."
The independents could be key in the Democratic primary from the result of the Republican primary (yes, technically there is still a Republican primary), so the campaigns actively pursue what Buttigieg calls "future ex-republicans." Registered Democrats and people who are not registered in a party can participate in the Democratic primary.
Clearly Sanders has consolidated progressives behind him. But the more moderate candidates combine to represent more voters even in the Democratic party. However, there are more moderate options. Unless and until the primary voters unite around one, Sanders, who won independents in New Hampshire in 2016, remains in front with a quarter of the party behind him.
- 7 things to observe in Tuesday's primary in New Hampshire
Mike Bloomberg is everywhere (except on the ballot in New Hampshire)
Not on the ballot: Mike Bloomberg, the multimillion dollar human antithesis of democratic socialist Sanders, did not meet the New Hampshire submission deadline, but has gotten into the conversation this week.
While Sanders, the independent who refused to join a political party, seeks to succeed in New Hampshire with an anti-billionaire message, Bloomberg, who was a Republican and independent headline before joining the Democrats, is opening his own wallet in a big way .
Anywhere else: He has already spent more than $ 350 million on radio advertising. If you watch TV or YouTube, you see their ads. Your children have seen your ads. Your parents and even your grandparents have seen your ads.
There was one on CNN in which each painting included an image of Bloomberg and Obama or an old audio of Obama praising Bloomberg.
There is another one in which Bloomberg does not even appear. They are just excerpts from past presidents who say inspiring things intermingled with Trump videos using rude words.
Another attacks the idea that Trump should thank for a booming economy.
What is Bloomberg getting for all this money? In a national Quinnipiac poll conducted on Monday, Bloomberg had 15% among Democrats. That's almost double what it showed in a January 28 survey. By way of comparison, Buttigieg's victory in the Iowa caucuses raised him from 6% to 10% support in that same set of surveys. In addition, the survey, and we need to see if other surveys confirm it, shows strong and growing support for Bloomberg among the black population, which is a key Democratic constituency.
What is better? This election could end up answering what is more valuable: a $ 350 million advertising campaign can triumph over a victory in the Iowa assemblies.
What are the chances, right now, that Bloomberg is the Democratic candidate?
I asked CNN forecaster Harry Enten and he started talking about real delegates, of which Bloomberg currently has zero.
Learn delegated math now. It is an issue that we all need to start being smart right away. Because Democratic voters seem unwilling at this time to join behind a person, it only increases the chances that this will not be defined soon.
1 in 10. This is what Harry said: "Bloomberg's chance of winning the nomination on the first ballot is still minimal, but his chance to take a plurality of committed delegates can be 1 in 10."
That is not much. But this elementary school is just beginning.
- Bernie Sanders maintains leadership in the second publication of the CNN follow-up survey in New Hampshire
Both things cannot be true.
Trump's main argument for reelection is the economy and, although he has not lived up to his 2016 campaign promises, he presented an extremely optimistic outlook on his annual budget proposal, published Monday.
Just as an example, read CNN's story about the predicted deficits in Trump's budget compared to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a nonpartisan organization.
Both things cannot be true:
The CBO says the budget will grow - The deficit - the gap between how much the government spends and how much it spends - exceeded one billion dollars for the calendar year in 2019, the first time since 2012.
That number is expected to expand further in the next decade, reaching a total of $ 1.7 trillion in 2030, according to the latest projections from the non-partisan Congress Budget Office (CBO) published at the end of January.
The White House says the budget will be reduced. That is a strong contrast to the latest White House plan, which projects that the deficit will be reduced to $ 261 billion by 2030. The president's budget assumes that the economy will grow around 3% annually during that time period helping bridge the gap Those estimates are significantly higher than most economists anticipated along with the Federal Reserve.
The reactions of Trump and Clinton after their political trials 1:02The political judgment
Giuliani has a channel for Barr: Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said Rudy Giuliani is giving information about his conspiracy theories in Ukraine to Justice Secretary William Barr, through some kind of special channel that Barr has established. This is not surprising since Trump clearly groups his lawyer and the secretary of justice. He asked the president of Ukraine to contact both of them. But a post-Justice Department channel? That is not how things are supposed to work, writes Elie Honig.
Trump arms the presidency: Read this from Stephen Collinson: (Trump) is completing his project to design the office around his own personality. It is unrestricted, inexplicable, often profane, impervious to external influence and the de facto limitations of normal governance. The president has established dominance over his party, his cabinet and his own media complex. He loosened the restrictions of Congress by refusing to cooperate with the political trial investigation. The result is that there are very few political restrictions on their behavior. ”
Remember Senator Joe McCarthy
Read this: Jake Tapper of CNN wrote a Twitter thread about Joseph McCarthy, who in 1950 claimed to have a list of communists working in the State Department.
“Thus began one of the longest and most shameful political campaigns of 20th century American politics. As the New Republic wrote in March 1950, "McCarthy is suppressing evidence, distorting evidence, fabricating evidence and deceiving the ... public ...". Too many of McCarthy's colleagues in the Senate, fearful of being slandered as communists, were largely cowardly. Very few escaped from that era looking particularly brave. Murrow finally faced McCarthy in his famous broadcast, in March 1954. ″
Read more and watch the Murrow broadcast here.
Good night and good luck.
Primary in New Hampshire