Brexit: Boris Johnson shows muscles

The risk of a sudden break between the United Kingdom and the European Union had shaken last year. The British government services were already imagining the monster traffic jams on both sides of the Channel, the planes and the Eurostar at a standstill, the shortages of medicines and fresh products… A great disorder, consequence of the return of controls and customs tariffs to the British border.

The United Kingdom may have left the EU with a withdrawal agreement at the end of January, but the catastrophic scenario could again become topical in December, according to the British government. It is written black and white in the negotiating mandate published on Thursday: if London believes in June that it has not made enough progress towards an agreement on the new relationship with the 27, the government "will decide whether the attention of the United Kingdom must move away from negotiation and focus only on domestic preparations to get out of the transition period in an orderly fashion. "

PODCAST. The history of Brexit: the long divorce that fractured British society

Two lines that are difficult to reconcile

Translation: If Boris Johnson and his team do not get any progress by the European Council in mid-June, then the Prime Minister threatens to close the door and be content with political separation from the EU, without putting in place of new business or security relationship.

Avoiding this outcome promises to be difficult, since the lines of Brussels and London are almost opposite. And the atmosphere of the thematic negotiating tables, at work from next week, looks tense.

On fishing, when the 27 demand "maintained access to territorial waters and a maintenance of quotas", London demands that it regain control of its waters, with annual negotiations to allocate possible access to each country concerned.

Another fundamental stumbling block: regulatory harmonization. Brussels calls for common rules of the game to guarantee "fair and open competition" with the United Kingdom. Unacceptable requirement for the British government. "The European Union does not apply these principles to other sovereign nations and should not apply them to the sovereign United Kingdom," said Minister Michael Gove to members of the House of Commons.

Barnier too transparent against Johnson's bluff

It also gets stuck on the European Court of Justice. In the political declaration, annexed to the Brexit agreement, it was the European institution which was to decide trade disputes as a last resort. "We are not going to [...] accept that we are obliged to keep our laws aligned with European texts or European institutions, including the European Court of Justice," warns Michael Gove.

Newsletter - The essentials of the news

I'm registering

Your email address is collected by Le Parisien to allow you to receive our news and commercial offers. Find out more

But beware, a question arises: what if it was simply ... Bluff? This is what seems to believe a former British MEP, follower of the Johnson method: “Michel Barnier is not a good negotiator because he is very transparent. When one negotiates, one must know how to enter the mind of the other. The Europeans have already cracked once faced with the bluff of Boris, by dropping the solution on the Irish border. "

PODCAST. The story of Brexit: the long divorce that fractured British society (episode 2)