The decline in the Chinese automobile market could go up to 7% in 2020 under the effect of the epidemic of new coronavirus, estimated Thursday the federation of the German manufacturers VDA, which counted until then on a contraction of 2%.
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" The start of the year was weak, " admitted Hildegard Müller, president of the mighty German industrial lobby at a press conference, as sales in the first 15 days of February plummeted 92% year on year. " Before the coronavirus crisis we already expected the Chinese market to fall by 2% and we are currently calculating a scenario where the decline could be 7%, " she added. “ We cannot expect a rapid recovery. "
According to the Chinese Federation of Individual Car Manufacturers (CPCA), the plunge in car deliveries could be 70% over one year for the whole of February, and 40% over the two cumulative months of January-February. " The coronavirus freezes the most important automobile market in the world, " commented Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, German expert in the automotive sector.
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If the drops in production linked to supply difficulties " can be made up for, " " the drop in growth and the lack of demand are persistent effects ," says the university. The weakness of the Chinese market, already down by almost 10% in 2019 as a result of trade conflicts, exposes especially German manufacturers and equipment manufacturers, who generate 35% of their turnover in China, to “ great risks ", Judge Mr. Dudenhöffer. The expert, for his part, forecasts an 8% drop in sales in China to 19.3 million cars.
Elsewhere in the world, the VDA expects a fall of 3% on the European and American markets, not making it possible to compensate for the fall in sales in China. The organization predicts a global market drop to 3% for 2020. The rating agency Moody's was already pessimistic Wednesday for global car sales by lowering its annual forecast due to the virus. They should now decrease by around 2.5% in 2020, against a small drop of 0.9% still seen at the start of the year.