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Editor's note: Frida Ghitis, ex-producer and correspondent for CNN, is a columnist on international issues. He collaborates frequently for the CNN opinion section, for The Washington Post and is a columnist for the World Politics Review. You can follow her on Twitter at @fridaghitis. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
(CNN) - President Donald Trump repeats that we don't worry; that the rapidly contagious coronavirus, COVID-19, "will disappear" soon, probably for April ... and that we are "close" to find a vaccine. Experts, including the best government scientists, say he is wrong in all of the above. (Please do not fire them!)
Why is the president lying? Guess it. Because he thinks that the virus and the fear of a contagion will harm him. And it is true. Unfortunately, to say that the virus is not a big problem does not influence at all the reduction of the contagion index or the economic impact that it will undoubtedly have on the whole world.
Only a small fraction of the coronavirus victims - more than 80,000 patients worldwide and more than 2,700 dead - are Americans. Almost all cases have occurred in China.
But the virus could have a dramatic impact on the future of the United States, even if no other American is infected. And Trump knows.
This virus, which is a public health emergency and a human tragedy, is also a sudden and powerful factor that affects the world economy. As a result, it could play a key role in the outcome of the November 2020 elections in the US.
Although the economic impact of a large-scale epidemic or pandemic could affect any presidency, this is particularly true for this president for 2 reasons: the first, that the main argument to re-elect Trump is that he has done a good job in the economic field. . He falsely states that his is the best economy in US history, although more jobs were created during the Barack Obama administration and at many other times he grew faster.
Second, Trump was elected by a very narrow margin of votes. He lost the popular vote and would have lost the presidency if less than 80 thousand votes in 3 states had gone to his political rival.
If the 2020 elections are equally close, an erosion of US economic performance. I could convince enough people not to vote for him.
Obviously, that is not the only factor. The candidate chosen by the Democrats could be a much more important consideration for the electorate.
Still, the inescapable impact of the coronavirus on the US economy. It could be decisive.
There is no possibility that the virus will not affect the US economy. The virus is spreading, reaching dozens of countries, with new outbreaks in South Korea, Italy and Iran.
But even if all cases were limited to China, the rest of the world would feel it ... for the simple reason that China is a nerve center economic: the core of the interconnectivity framework that constitutes world trade. Those who thought that the impact of the coronavirus would be similar to that of another epidemic - SARS in 2003 - did not notice the contrast.
SARS infected 8,098 people and killed 774 ... a fraction of this new virus. COVID-19 is more contagious; although SARS killed more infected people.
And China's economy now constitutes 16% of the world economy: four times more than at the time of the SARS.
With the spread of the virus to dozens of countries, the economic impact will continue to have a strong impact on what is happening in China. This country has been the engine of growth for years ... responsible for about a third of all global economic growth.
China is a voracious consumer of exports from all over the world; and in recent years, it has also become an important consumer of merchandise.
With large segments of China closed to stop contagion, its economy - which was already growing at the slowest speed in decades - could see its growth halved. That means less manufacturing and less purchases of raw materials. China has been buying the majority of cement, coal, steel, nickel, copper and many other commodities.
A slowdown in China could be a punch for many countries. China sells and buys huge amounts from all US states ... from airplanes to cars, to grains. Chinese consumers buy cars, luxury goods and travel a lot ... at least before the epidemic.
But it is possible that China's key role in the global production supply chain is what is most affected. China manufactures parts of almost everything we buy ... from electronic products to drugs.
Apple warned that it will not meet its sales targets. The US Food and Drug Administration is concerned about the potential shortage of about 150 drugs. Airlines around the world are suffering. And according to Yahoo Finance, the cruise industry is losing greatly. The same with the film industry, which has increasingly depended on audiences in the most populous country in the world, and will feel the blow of the closure of 70 thousand cinema-theaters in China.
We know that China's economy will suffer a marked slowdown. Japan, Singapore and South Korea will follow in the footsteps. European countries could fall into recession. Germany, France and Italy were already in trouble before the outbreak of the coronavirus. In fact, when the virus struck, the world was beginning to recover the ground lost by Trump's trade wars.
It is inevitable that a global slowdown will affect the US. That was what produced the anxiety attack on Wall Street last Monday and Tuesday, due to the biggest drop in the stock market in years.
That's why Trump didn't want to take measures that indicated panic. Democrats in Congress are furious.
According to Nancy Pelosi, president of the House of Representatives, President Trump's request for $ 2.5 billion to fight the virus is inadequate and late. He said that the Chamber would provide more funds than requested, and that "it would boost a strong and strategic financing package," proportional to the challenge.
The best advice now for people is to wash their hands frequently and pay attention to the experts, not the president. He does not tell the truth. Propagate false information to confuse and contradict the urgent public health recommendations of experts.
Trump's secretary of commerce, Wilbur Ross, said the virus could help American workers. "I don't want to sing victory," he said, but he could return jobs to our country.
But surely the virus is going to hit the US Private economists are already cutting their economic projections.
It is impossible to predict the magnitude of the impact. But it is possible that the coronavirus becomes the image of the black swan of a financial crisis: that is, an event of low probability and high impact that changes everything, until the possibility of Trump being re-elected.