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Will we meet again here for a fourth round? The whims of the leaders will determine

2020-02-29T23:21:09.301Z


Prof. Abraham Diskin


The 20th Knesset was elected in March 2015 and was to serve for more than four and a half years - until early November 2019. But the 21st Knesset elections were preceded by April 2019. Certainly one of the main reasons for the election was Israel's retirement from our coalition.

The retirement has reduced the coalition base of the 34 government to 61 MKs. It is worth remembering that after the 2015 election, the 61st government was established. The government's support base increased with the appointment of Avigdor Lieberman as defense minister instead of Moshe Ya'alon, and shrank again after his retirement.

Comparative studies indicate that narrow, but mostly governmental, governments tend to have longevity. The problem of such governments is not their stability but their ongoing conduct. Depending on the mistakes of individual Knesset members is no easy challenge. But what was a nightmare on the eve of the dissolution of the 20th Knesset was now to the right.

After the April 21, 2019 Knesset elections, and even more so after the September 22, 2019 Knesset elections, it became clear that Israel our home is no longer part of the right-wing bloc. Lieberman, who used to be a permanent ally of Aryeh Deri, became his big opponent, and now everyone knows that the decisive question is whether the right-wing voter in the 23rd Knesset will vote "a majority of 61 without Lieberman."

The question is not new. On the eve of the 2015 election day, I had the opportunity to exchange words with a senior member of Knesset. The final results are not yet known and the senior summed up the situation with the question: "Will there be a majority of 61 without Lieberman and all of us?" After an unprecedented series of dramas, we returned to the starting point outlined five years ago less than two weeks ago.

What is expected of us this time? In the case of a majority in the Knesset for Likud and his three camp partners, Benjamin Netanyahu will assemble the 35th government. This, although an attempt will be made to prevent him from doing so, through petitions to the High Court. During the 18th Knesset, Netanyahu even aspired to support the center, and even the left.

The situation today is completely different. All polls during the election campaign cast doubt on the right-wing bloc's ability to win a majority. Deviations from the results of the truth from the polls can be minimal, but politically they can give rise to the opposite.

If they achieve blue and white, Israel is our home, the work-bridge-Meretz and the joint block most blocks, hovering questions similar to those we experienced in April and September last year. Everything is possible: retiring from camp to camp, rebellions or repulsions within camps, a minority government, a unity government or a fourth election. However, not only the voters, but also the whims of the leaders will determine how the absurd play will end.

Prof. Abraham Diskin is Head of the School of Administration, Governance and Law at the Gates of Science and Law Academic Center

For further opinions of Prof. Abraham Diskin

Source: israelhayom

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