The bad news for President Iván Duque

Last week, Iván Duque's government received two major blows. After several days of partial triumphs, such as having achieved some governance in the Congress of the Republic and showing acceptable economic growth, two buckets of cold water arrived. On the one hand, unemployment does not stop growing, reaching 13%, the highest in recent years. On the other hand, the president's negative image reached 71% and his approval collapsed to remain at 23%. His image has been in free fall for several months.

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On the first point several conclusions can be drawn. Among other things, it can be said that one of the greatest wear of the Government was given the approval of the tax reform, there it lost much of its popularity. That reform was based on the idea that reducing taxes on the rich would generate more employment. However, this calculation so far has not been true. It is well known that such reforms hardly work, but in Colombia it was sold as an irrefutable economic dogma. The complicated part of all is that the reduction of taxes to a business sector opened the fiscal gap, therefore, it is possible that in the short future a tax reform will be required to increase revenues. Thus, the Government had great wear on a reform and at least the central objective for the moment has not been achieved.

On the second point, it is concluded that the model of national conversation that the Government of President Duque devised to stop the wave of protests, which began on November 21, 2019, does not seem to work. Nor the communicative strategies and even less the announcement of a coalition in the Congress of the Republic. The president must take into account what he spends said stability in the congress, he must measure very well what his legislative agenda will be.

The obvious question, after more than 18 months of the beginning of Iván Duque's mandate, and with two and a half years left for the national elections, is about the future of Uribism. On this, several interpretations have been woven. A series of analysts believe that, if there is no increase in the positive image of the president in 2020, Duque will go down in history as the man who buried uribism. Others believe that if labor and pension reforms are not presented, the Government will be able to handle the crisis and in the end, although not recovering much, it will maintain an image so that the government party survives. Although you must make alliances for the next elections.

The difficult thing with this political landscape for Uribism is that the battle within the party is intense, therefore, it is difficult to achieve coordination within the Government. In several meetings, President Duque would have responded to public policy requests "don't let me." This phrase would show that the president is doing a real juggling so as not to burn his party anymore and avoid clashes within his Government.

In any case, the truth is that both the Executive and the Government party must invent a strategy to control the fall in the image and think beyond 2022. Obviously there can be many strategies, but the only one that is not viable It is trying to keep everyone happy. This is something that President Duque must begin to consider if he wants to get out of the crisis and start making decisions quickly. Iván Duque takes a long time to decide something and that immobility has been quite expensive.

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