Politics
Written by: Peng Yiwei
2020-03-05 07:00
Last updated: 2020-03-05 07:00The general election of the Legislative Council will be held in September of this year. The formation of the establishment who experienced a major defeat in the district board election is not optimistic, and even the irony of "strong defeat but weak victory" appears. Among them, in the west of the New Territories, which has the widest circle and the largest number of voters, some people in the region analyzed that Tian Beichen, the last round of the "King of votes" political round table, had a very high risk of losing votes, and there was a certain undercurrent for re-election. On the contrary, He Junyao, a "heavy gunner" who was elected by the last seat only in the last session, is expected to benefit from the anti-revision storm. His votes will "swell against the market" and his chances of election will be higher than in the previous session.
Tian Beichen has been involved in direct elections in the Legislative Council since 2008. In the name of the Liberal Party, he played in Kowloon West and lost 13,011 votes (6.30%). In 2012, Tian Kai changed to the New Territories West as a NDP vice chairman and eventually won; in 2016, he was re-elected with 70,646 votes, second only to Zhu Kaidi, who received 84,000 votes, and became the formation king.
Tian Beichen withdrew from the New Democratic Party in 2017, along with six other New Territories West pilgrims to reform the actual round table, claiming to take a moderate route. (Profile picture / Photo by Luo Junhao)
After retiring from the NDP, the stakes may be reduced or weakened
Tian Beichen withdrew from the New Democratic Party in 2017, along with six other New Zealand West "piles" to reform the round table, claiming to take a moderate route. Some people in the region believe that after Tian resigns, the source of votes may be reduced. "At least some supporters of the New Democratic Party will not vote for him again." Even if Tian has his own "star vote", his strength will still be weakened.
In fact, in the Legislative Council elections, the number of local elections is the key to the success of direct elections. When Tian Beichen restructured the round table, only two of the original six members of the Western New Territories District were successfully re-elected in the last year's election, making the organization strong Less. Of the six people who were on the roster in the last election, only Zheng Jiebin and Xu Xiaojie followed the actual round table with them. It is still unknown how their strength is.
After the anti-revision storm, He Junyao became the establishment's "red" fried chicken, and his brave style won the support of the "dark blue" camp. It is expected that his votes will rise in the next term. (Profile picture)
He Junyao expects to get votes from Rural Party
According to analysis by local people, Tian Beichen received a lot of votes from the rural school in the past. However, after the anti-revision storm, He Junyao, who was also elected according to Xinxi, became the institutionalist "popular fried chicken." His brave style not only won " Supporters of the "Dark Blue" camp are expected to protect him. Many rural affiliates may change their ticket sources to him. It is expected that the votes will increase significantly in the coming term, and they can even replace Tian Beichen's "king of votes".
Another constitutional person believes that Tian Beichen has always been a "bad boy" of the constitutional school. He was even more rumored that he would not be re-elected as the representative of the National People's Congress in the port area. He also expressed his approval for the establishment of an independent investigative committee to investigate thoroughly. The incident may cause him to lose the support of relevant parties in the Legislative Council election.
The DAB may become a "sandwich", and the system "can only sit 4 and 5 "
The DAB currently has two seats in Xinxi, namely Liang Zhixiang and Chen Hengyi. Some members of the party frankly said that with the increase in the number of voters, it is expected that this election will require more than 50,000 votes to win the election, and the formed faction may not be able to maintain five seats. The person believes that He Junyao and Tian Beichen have a clear personal positioning and are worried that the two members of the DAB will eventually become a "sandwich" and there is a crisis for re-election.
In terms of the general public, the political groups failed to coordinate in the 2016 general elections. A total of 11 lists were sent for election, and only 4 seats were obtained in the end. Some people familiar with the local area laughed and said that how many seats the establishment faction could win still depended on the success of the panams; if the panamians dilute each other's votes, the formations may benefit the fishermen.
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