The Democratic nomination campaign now has only two serious candidates. The results of Super Tuesday operated a complete upheaval in the primaries: at the lowest in the polls after the first catastrophic results, Joe Biden is once again propelled into the position of big favorite; Bernie Sanders' seemingly irresistible rise is stopped; their competitors are overwhelmed.
Biden and Sanders remain the two main contenders for the Democratic nomination. The competition is far from over, since there will still be 62% of the delegates to be assigned (these elected officials who will represent their state at this summer’s Democratic convention in Milwaukee) after the final results of Super Tuesday, and 32 states are not are not yet expressed. But Joe Biden's dramatic comeback changed the game. The number of candidates has dropped.
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In the space of a week, four of them suspended their campaign, withdrawals which should all benefit Biden. Two, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, called for support for the former vice president. The abandonment of Michael Bloomberg, who announced his withdrawal Wednesday morning, also plays in his favor. The wealthy New York businessman, late in the campaign for the Democratic nomination, had aroused the interest of moderate voters, in search of a candidate capable of defeating Donald Trump. Neglecting the first states of the primaries to bet everything on those of Super Tuesday, spending huge sums on an unprecedented advertising campaign, Bloomberg missed its bet. And the centrist and moderate voters who had bet on him should refer to Biden.
Sanders failed to win African-American voters, yet one of the key components of a possible Democratic victory in the presidential electionThe trends given by the first states to express themselves, Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, were completely reversed with the return of Joe Biden. Relegated to fourth position, on the brink of being abandoned by the donors who finance the candidates after very poor results in the first elections, the former Obama vice president recovered in the space of a few days. Winning a solid lead over South Carolina last Saturday, Biden confirmed the comeback by winning nine of the fourteen states of Super Tuesday.
Thanks to the support of the African-American electorate, he emerged victorious from the primaries of the historic Southern States which voted on Tuesday: Alabama, Arkansas, North Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia, thus confirming that South Carolina was not a isolated case. He also won from rural states that polls tended to favor Sanders, such as Minnesota or Oklahoma. He also managed to win in New England, Massachusetts, and possibly also in Maine. And finally, Biden also seems to have managed to win in Texas, one of the most populous states after California, and where Sanders was the favorite. Biden now exceeds Bernie Sanders in number of delegates.
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The day was disappointing for Sanders. If he wins California, the state that allocates the most delegates from all the primaries, the senator from Vermont saw his opponents rally against him. Coming from the margins of the Democratic Party, Sanders never had any illusions about the position of the party apparatus towards him. He even made it one of his campaign arguments, presenting himself as an independent candidate of the political games and of the big donors who control the nomination. But the abandonment and rallying of other moderate Democratic candidates for Joe Biden now deprived him of the divisions of his opponents.
Project against project
Other factors are more worrying, and depend only on him. Sanders failed in particular to gain the support of African-American voters, yet one of the key components of a possible Democratic victory in the presidential election.
The Democratic primary campaign is now becoming a duel between two very different competitors. Joe Biden, Obama's former vice president, enjoys the support of moderate voters, African-American communities and the Democratic party apparatus. His program can be summarized as returning to normal political life and closing the parenthesis opened by the election of Donald Trump.
The two elderly men each have their weaknesses. Donald Trump, who already makes cruel comments and treacherous remarks on the Democratic primary, will not fail to exploit themmuch more radical. Relying on a solid organization of dedicated activists and a network of small donors who make it independent of conventional funding, the senator from Vermont wants to deeply transform the American system, in particular to increase taxation on high earners, and establish social security universal.
The primaries which continue in the coming weeks will have to decide between these two candidates and these two projects. If neither takes a clear lead over the other, the scenario of a democratic convention divided next July in Milwaukee is looming. The two elderly men also each have their weaknesses. Donald Trump, who is already engaged in cruel comments and treacherous remarks on the Democratic primary, will not fail to exploit them against the one who wins.