Moderate advantage

The center-left moderate Joe Biden clearly defeated the social democrat Bernie Sanders in the decisive primary of the Democratic Party, which places him as his great candidate for the presidency of the United States. Biden prevailed in 9 of the 14 States and in the total votes of the set. The only outstanding victory of his rival has been crystallizing in California, the state with the most votes. Although if Biden joined those who also harvested the moderate Michael Bloomberg, the former vice president of Obama would have also won there.

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The race begins

Election project

A management fiasco

There is still a lot left for the November presidential elections. And Biden still has a lot of work to achieve the Democratic nomination, although Bloomberg's resignation has made it easier. The millionaire businessman was not able to win even in the largest states (California and Texas), where he had almost exclusively put his effort and his unlimited financial resources. To the abandonment of Bloomberg are added those of other centrist candidates who also withdrew from the race for the benefit of their rival.

As much or more than the result obtained by Biden matters, for the future, the way in which it has been produced. He fought against the forecasts, which evicted him in the early stages, and was able to attract distanced Democratic voters, the bulk of the black minority, a segment of Hispanics and a large portion of the elderly.

This sum could be decisive if it is enshrined as a candidate for November. Some opponents, Donald Trump, are smiled at some facts, such as notable economic growth, although offset in the medium term by the increase in the deficit and the triggering of the debt. Or the end of wars he has unleashed, such as the trade with China or the destabilization of Iran, and the recent agreement with the Taliban in Afghanistan, not very solid, but effective as propaganda.

Nobody expects a huge turnaround of votes between Republicans and Democrats. The pulse will not be gained with the ability of each other to vary their consolidated number of followers. What may be in their hands is the possibility of combating abstention and attracting new, distant or abstentionist voters. And what can become essential is the true state of opinion of a part of American society, dissatisfied not only with the contents, but with the modes of the mandate that ends in the fall.

So the challenge of Republicans and Democrats lies in how many new ballots they can count. Joe Biden may have more travel than he seems, for his ability to surprise, the faithfulness of the moderate vote and because the battle is being raised in the most restrained segments of the United States, while Trump's strength is the inflexible support of his faithful . It is a powerful and numerous sector, as demonstrated four years ago, but difficult to expand. And, after all, Trump garnered in 2016 almost three million fewer popular votes than his rival, Hillary Clinton, even if he won in electoral votes, from compromisers.

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