The mano a mano between Anne Hidalgo and Rachida Dati is confirmed, Agnès Buzyn settles in the role of arbitrator. Solid on its foundation, the mayor of Paris rose by 1 point with 25% of voting intentions in the first round in the last Ipsos / Sopra Steria poll for Le Figaro . But if an electoral campaign is a matter of dynamics, then it is the candidate of the Republicans who appears as the big winner of this opinion poll. Rachida Dati progressed by 4 points to reach 24% of voting intentions. She leaves behind the former Minister of Health LREM, who has stagnated at 19%. Behind, no one seems to be able to interfere in this three-woman match that is taking shape for control of the capital.
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Despite the strong rise in environmental concerns everywhere in France, the ecologist David Belliard fell by 1 point, to 12%. As for Cédric Villani, the dissident adventure now seems to have ended since the mathematician recorded a drop of 2 points, to 7%. A score which hardly leaves him any other possibility than that of playing the auxiliary forces for the second round. Behind, the lists of the National Rally of Serge Federbusch and of La France insoumise by Danielle Simonnet are equal, at 4%.
An extremely open election
But, for Rachida Dati, this good result of the first round does not bode well for that of the second. Because, if Anne Hidalgo obtains the support of David Belliard, it is then she who would find herself in a position of strength, with 42% of the voting intentions. Rachida Dati would then come in second position with 32% of the votes, but not very far from Agnes Buzyn. Assuming that the latter manages to rally the deputy LREM Cédric Villani, it would then obtain 26%. Anne Hidalgo and Rachida Dati benefit from very good second-round votes. The two women first strongly mobilize their camp, since, with 95% and 96% respectively, they are almost full of the votes of the first round in their political family.
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In comparison, Agnès Buzyn would retain only 86% of her voters. Strong point of the current mayor of Paris, she manages to mobilize strongly among the environmentalists of David Belliard (64%) and also nibbles at Cédric Villani (19%). The voice reserves of Rachida Dati are significantly less important, since she can only count on 13% of environmentalists and 19% of villagers.
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In reality, the Paris election remains extremely open. Judging at least by the opinion of voters on the main candidates. Anne Hidalgo and Rachida Dati would make a good mayor of Paris for 48% of the people questioned. An identical score which again camouflages a dynamic. For the current mayor of Paris, this score increases by 3 points compared to the last survey carried out at the end of February 2020, when it jumped by 6 points for Rachida Dati. Agnès Buzyn came just behind with a score of 47% and an increase of 3 points, just ahead of Cédric Villani, who gained 1 point, at 42%.
As for environmentalists, the respondents always give them very little confidence in their ability to run a city. According to those questioned, David Belliard would only make a good mayor of Paris for 24%.