Why does CNN call the new outbreak of coronavirus a pandemic?

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(CNN) - Starting this Monday, you'll notice that CNN is using the term pandemic to describe the current outbreak of coronavirus. It is not a decision we make lightly. While we know it sounds alarming, it shouldn't cause panic.

So why now? The World Health Organization has not described the outbreak of coronavirus as a pandemic. Nor are the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of the United States. UU.

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But many epidemiologists and public health experts argue that the world is already experiencing a pandemic due to the new coronavirus. Now there are more than 100,000 cases and more than 3,000 deaths attributed to this new virus. On one day last week, the number of new cases outside of China, where the virus originated, was almost 9 times greater than the number of new cases in China. This virus is already on all continents, except in Antarctica. In several countries, the number of cases continues to increase.

(Karen Ducey / Getty Images)

Some of those countries "have had a sustained community transmission of a substantial type," said Dr. William Schaffner, a professor at Vanderbilt University and a long-time advisor to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. UU. "If you add all that, that means pandemic."

The specific criteria for a pandemic are not universally defined, but there are three general criteria: a virus that can cause disease or death; sustained transmission from person to person of that virus; and evidence of spread throughout the world.

The CDC says that a pandemic is “an epidemic that has spread across several countries or continents, which generally affects a large number of people,” while an epidemic is “an increase, often sudden, in the number of cases of a disease above what is normally expected in that population in that area. ”

(KENA BETANCUR / AFP via Getty Images)

At the end of February, Dr. Nancy Messonnier of the CDC said: “The fact that this virus has caused a disease, including a disease that has caused death, and there is a sustained spread from person to person is worrying. These factors meet two of the criteria for a pandemic. ”

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"As community propagation is detected in more and more countries, the world approaches the third criterion: the worldwide spread of the new virus."

We have already seen community propagation in the United States, but sustained spread means that it continues from generation to generation, when a person can transmit the virus to two or three others, and then those people transmit it to two or three more, and so on .

While there may be areas of the United States where the coronavirus is most easily contained, the CDC says that widespread transmission of the virus in the United States is likely to occur.

"I think we're there," said Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch. “I think the definition they have there… an epidemic that is in multiple locations and that affects a large number of people is the basic problem. And I might add, that is not under control in those places. I think all these criteria are met. ”

The question of what he calls this outbreak is, in part, a matter of semantics. But it also talks about specific actions that are being taken.

(Ducey / Getty Images)

It means that the focus is not only on containment, but increasingly on mitigating the spread of coronavirus. US health officials UU. They are already signaling a change in strategy.

“Ultimately, we hope to see a community spread in this country. It is not so much a question of whether this will continue to happen, but rather a question of when exactly it will occur and how many people in this country will have a serious illness, ”says Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the CDC, told late last month. "We will maintain, for as long as is practical, a dual approach in which we continue the measures to contain this disease, but we will also employ strategies to minimize the impact on our communities."

On Sunday, the US surgeon general. UU., Dr. Jerome Adams, told CNN: “Initially, we had a containment posture so that we could give people time to prepare for this moment. We are going through a mitigation phase, which means we are helping communities understand that there will be more cases. Unfortunately, you will see more deaths, but that does not mean we should panic. ”

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While mitigation does not prevent containment, it will mean anticipating and preparing for the increase in patients who will be admitted to hospitals. This, not the daily case count, is the most urgent problem facing the United States, as well as many other countries.

The largest case studies in China indicate that about 80% of people infected with the coronavirus had symptoms of a bad cold and are expected to recover. Another 14% became seriously ill and 5% became more seriously. People between 70 and 80 years were more likely to get seriously or seriously ill and pre-existing conditions, such as heart disease, diabetes, lung disease and hypertension, also increased the risk.

(Spencer Platt / Getty Images)

According to estimates from the US Department of Health and Human Services. In the US, that means that even with a moderate outbreak, 200,000 people in the United States will need intensive care. The United States has less than 100,000 beds in the ICU. In a moderate pandemic, 64,000 people are projected to need mechanical ventilation: breathing machines. It is estimated that the United States has only about 62,000 fans with all available functions and an additional 8,900 in the national inventory. Since this is the flu season, many of them are already in use. Changing the dialogue towards preparing for a pandemic means that we must address these deficiencies more directly and completely.

I take this term change very seriously, and spent the last few days talking with public health leaders, epidemiologists and clinicians about terminology. While some were understandably conservative, everyone agreed that we are now in a pandemic.

Now is the time to prepare for what lies ahead. That could mean quarantines, closed schools and canceled events in your city. It can mean stress at work or take a break from hobbies that generally give you joy. It can mean postponing a family vacation or catching up on the phone instead of meeting.

Humanity has overcome pandemics before. In this globally connected world, we may be asked to add more social distance between us, but that does not mean that we cannot yet collectively unite as a nation and as a world. This is a crisis that we can overcome if we can work together.

Pandemic