Politics
Written by: Lin Jian
2020-03-16 07:00
Last updated: 2020-03-16 07:00The Legislative Council elections were held in September this year. The Democrats recently led by Dai Yaoting, an associate professor at the University of Hong Kong Law School, and former Nuo Xuan District member Nuo Xuan, tried to coordinate the election list to avoid the situation of "winning votes and losing seats".
At present, no specific mechanism has been set by the democratic side, only Dai Yaoting has proposed a preliminary framework. It is understood that the Democrats hope to use Kowloon East, a "high-risk constituency," as a pilot to establish a mechanism that is convinced by all factions. If it is successfully implemented, it will be applied to other constituencies. Jiudong's men and women who intend to choose Jiudong will be "buried in Taiwan" tonight (March 16).
Some Democrats have revealed that whether or not a formal primary election is held, the coordination mechanism must answer a realistic question: Once a candidate is DQed, the eligibility of an "orthodox heir" will fall to the next person on the same list. Still the next candidate. The spearheads of related issues point directly to Huang Zhifeng, the Secretary-General of Hong Kong, who is rumored to be running, and Leung Kai-ching, a Kwun Tong councilor who is reported to be "Plan B". Relevant decisions are bound to further affect the situation in other constituencies.
▼ Democratic Kowloon East Potential Candidates ▼
+2
Kowloon East is a high-risk area
When it comes to the democratic party's "winning votes, losing seats", Kowloon East is naturally an obvious case. In the last two sessions of Kowloon East, there were 5 seats. Democrats took only 2 seats in the total votes over the establishment. The most important reason was that the Democrats failed to coordinate. As a result, "brothers climbed the mountain and fell to the cliff."
In 2012, Huang Yangda was elected in the East of Kowloon with the People's Power card header, which overlapped with the social people's Lian Tao Jun's ticket source. As a result, Huang Yangda received 36,608 votes, Tao Junxing 27,253 votes, and the formation Xie Weijun obtained the final seat with 38,546 votes. The history repeats itself in 2016, and self-organized passionate citizens Huang Yangda, People ’s Forces Tan Dezhi (quickly required), and East Kowloon Community Concern Group spokesman Chen Zetao won a total of 77,940 votes. They were all unsuccessful. At that time, the overall non-establishment system received about 55% of the votes, but only 2 out of 5 seats.
So far, the information of all parties has been integrated. In addition to the Democratic and Citizens, the two major parties must send their candidates for election. The Secretary-General, Huang Zhifeng, will "airborne" Kowloon East. If he is DQ, Liang Kaiqing will be used as "Plan B". . In addition, Shi Delai, the chairman of the ADPL, and Tan Dezhi, the people's power, are also rumored to be interested in running. With the Democrats as a whole, it is almost impossible to obtain more than three seats in Kowloon East.
According to Dai Yaoting's latest statement, the democratic coordination mechanism has not yet been finalized, but the initial plan is to first set up "target seats" in various districts, with citizen participation as the principle, and let the candidates publicize the political platform and win support, and then press the As a result of the first stage, candidates and groups were allowed to regroup the participating teams after considering their respective odds to minimize the number of people participating in the official election. A few days before the election day, according to the survey results of credible opinion polls, candidates who are not ranked in the number of target seats in the district will publicly indicate that the election project will be stopped immediately as promised.
Sources said that Democrats hope to use a smaller number of Kowloon East as a pilot. If the mechanism works effectively, it will be extended to other more complicated constituencies.
Dai Yaoting and Quo Nuoxuan led the democratic coordinating work. It is reported that Kowloon East will become a pilot. (Photo / Photo by Liang Pengwei)
People in the Democrats: Coordination or Persuasion Mechanism Must Be Fair to Serve the Masses
However, the specific arrangement of this mechanism is likely to become the main point of contention among the democrats. Some people in the democratic group reported to the reporter of "Hong Kong 01" that in fact everyone knows that the so-called coordination is actually a "persuasion" mechanism: "You have to call it" coordination ". It is persuasion, not coercion, or you must be convinced. , Voluntarily withdraw. "
The person admits that, unlike the institutionalists, democratic parties have an authoritative coordinating role such as the Western Central, and the so-called mechanism is only voluntary. Even if they are dismissed and there is no substantial consequence in breach of the promised election, the mechanism must balance the various The interests of factions, fairness and transparency, let those who quit are voluntary, rather than just hearing some "big picture" and other words: "Some things are big for you and destructive for others (political life) Blow. "
The source analyzed that Huang Zhifeng appeared together with Liang Kaiqing from time to time. First, he provided masks for the demonstrators in prison. Then, on Saturday (14th), he greeted Chen Jianmin, one of the “middle sons”, out of prison and went to Biwu Prison. Visiting the demonstrators in prison, the two also "mutually tag" on the social network, and the alliance of "Huang Zhifeng-Liang Kaiqing" is almost a foregone conclusion. Huang Zhifeng is well known in Hong Kong and internationally. If a primary election is held, he and the two major parties, Democracy and Citizen, will have a good chance to run out.
The biggest controversy lies in the fact that once Huang Zhifeng was disqualified from the election, the so-called DQ, the "orthodox heir" should be the second person on the same list (that may be Liang Kaiqing), or the fourth list. Another source pointed out that if the three winning lists were contested, everyone could admit that this was a "result based on the mechanism" and the dispute was relatively small. However, when the qualifying person was DQ, the original candidate used the form of "reincarnated spirit boy" and another "hand pick" inherited. I am afraid that it may not be able to convince the public. For candidates who have cultivated in the region for many years and accumulated a certain regional strength, unfair.
In other words, how Kowloon East will deal with the "PLAN B" issue will directly affect Liang Kaiqing's opportunity to play, that is, the fate of candidates outside the Democratic Party and the Citizen Party.
Huang Zhifeng and Liang Kaiqing have appeared together from time to time, and talked about their visits on the social network "mutual tag". It is estimated that the two have a good chance of running in the Kowloon East. (Huang Zhifeng, Liang Kaiqing fb page screenshot)
The "Feng Jianji Incident" can learn from Plan B that it will affect Hong Kong
In fact, the Democrats have been upset about Plan B in the past. Feng Jianji, a former Legislative Council member, participated in the 2018 Kowloon West 3.11 by-election primary election. According to the democratic mechanism, Yao Songyan once became D B's Plan B. However, Feng Jianji later came under pressure from the democrats to abandon Plan B status. He later withdrew from the ADPL and participated in another Kowloon West by-election in November. Frederick Fung has now broken with mainstream democrats.
In the past two large-scale elections, in the 11.25 Kowloon West by-election in 2018, Liu Xiaoli was added by Li Zhuoren after DQ; in the 2019 District Council election, Huang Zhifeng was elected by Hai Hao West by DQ. Choose "Friendly" as Plan B and the team as the unit. However, the general election of the Legislative Council is a different way of playing, because under the proportional representation system, there are more people who can challenge the seats, and the political spectrum is more fragmented. Other participating teams are more likely to question whether this Plan B candidate has received sufficient public acceptance.
Kowloon East's handling of the "Plan B" arrangement may also affect the election situation in Hong Kong. Among the current Democratic candidates in other constituencies, Liu Xiaoli (reported to intend to run for Kowloon West), Zhu Kaidi (reported to run for re-election in New Territories West), and Luo Guancong (reported to run for Hong Kong Island) are either pre-election or After being elected by the DQ, other candidates with local opinions also have the same risks. Therefore, Plan B is a topic that must be touched and has the opportunity to affect the final list of other constituencies.
[Politics circle] Tian Beichen changed from a system-built ticket king to a high-risk He Junyao expects "upturn" to get votes
[Political circle] Two more political groups plan to run for "Seven Heroes"
[Political circle] Receiving the second batch of Hubei Hong Kong people next week will be difficult to make a technical difficult to break through
Political Circles, Legislative Council Election of Democrats, Kowloon East