Whatever the future of this election, there is a figure that will remain engraved in political annals for a long time: the 56% abstention according to Ifop estimates at 8 p.m. The highest rate ever recorded in a municipal election. “It's unheard of, something new. This figure marks this election in a complete break with all previous municipal elections , said Frédéric Dabi, deputy director general of Ifop. Such abstention cannot but have an effect on the balance of political power. ”
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In a troubled political context, with feelings further amplified by the health crisis the country is going through, the few French people who have moved to the polls despite the threat of the coronavirus will have chosen stability. "These elections took place in a climate of fear," confirms the pollster. The people who went to vote logically had a legitimist reflex. Now was not a good time for a protest vote. ”
A reflex which came, mechanically, to favor the most established traditional parties: the Socialist Party and The Republicans. Contrary to the last presidential, legislative or European elections, no wave of decisiveness fell on the leavers. Quite the contrary. In Paris, PS mayor Anne Hidalgo came out on top with 30% of the vote according to Ifop estimates. So is Johanna Rolland, who crushes the competition with 32.6% of the votes according to Ipsos. In Limoges, the outgoing LR mayor, Émile Roger Lombertie, would also benefit from significant support with more than 46.5% of the vote. As for the mayor LR of Toulon, Hubert Falco, he is reappointed for a fourth mandate, from the first round, with 62% of the votes. Like the candidate ministers, Gérald Darmanin in Tourcoing and Franck Riester in Coulommiers, both re-elected in the first round. In Le Havre, Prime Minister Édouard Philippe also came out on top, but possibly put in difficulty by his communist adversary .
Announced as the rising force of these municipal elections, environmentalists are making a historic breakthrough in several cities, despite the resistance of outgoing elected officials. In Lyon, the EELV Grégory Doucet leads with 29% of the votes according to Ipsos. As in Strasbourg, where Jeanne Barseghian obtained 26% of the votes according to the same institute. When in Bordeaux, environmentalist Pierre Hurmic is 3 points ahead of the outgoing mayor with 35.9% of the vote.
The Republic on the march, victim of the ballot
The main victims of the ballot should logically be the movements with the fewest outgoing elected representatives. The Republic on the move, first of all. Like the National Gathering, to a lesser extent. The two forces, which came largely ahead of the last Europeans, only a year ago, are thus harshly reminded that local elections are not national elections. In Besançon, one of the rare hopes of victory for the presidential party, the candidate LREM Éric Alauzet is largely outdistanced by the environmental candidate supported by the PS, Anne Vignot. When the former Minister of Health, Agnès Buzyn, stalls in Paris with 17% of the votes according to Ifop.
If the National Gathering is, in turn, about to keep the ten cities conquered in 2014 - like Hénin-Beaumont, Hayange, Beaucaire or Fréjus whose mayors were re-elected in the first round - he sees his chances of conquering many of cities soar due to a high premium for leavers. As in Denain, in the North, where against all odds, the socialist mayor Anne-Lise Dufour-Tonini was re-elected in the first round. Like the mayor LR of Calais, a city where the RN did not hide its ambitions. Difficulties that could however overshadow the score obtained by the deputy RN Louis Aliot, leading in Perpignan with 35.2% of the votes according to Ipsos. Far ahead of the outgoing mayor LR Jean-Marc Pujol who does not exceed the 20% mark.
Additional proof, if necessary, of the politically disturbed context in which the election took place, the second round should give rise to a record number of triangular and quadrangular.