As the results of this first round of the 2020 municipal elections fall on the background of the coronavirus epidemic, Pascal Perrineau, political scientist, researcher at the Center for Political Research at Sciences Po Paris (Cevipof), analyzes the voting conditions.
What does this record abstention rate inspire in you?
PASCAL PERRINEAU . It is not surprising, we saw mounting concern throughout the electorate, this could only translate into an extremely high abstention rate, a historic record. It reflects the extent of the concern, and the incomprehension of the French, who are asked at the same time to avoid all rallies and to go to vote.
Is this a sanction for this double discourse?
Yes. The first motivation for abstaining is to say: I don't have to go to polling stations and take a risk for myself and the others . There is a disavowal to power there. Abstention is ultra-majority among young people, 70% of 18-24 year olds. Only in the elderly is it significantly below 50%.
VIDEO. Municipal in Paris: "We should have postponed the elections"
And by political families?
There is more abstention on the left and among the extreme forces, RN and LFI, than in the center or right. The electorate of the center and LREM has a high level of study, is made up of senior executives and intellectual professions whose interest in politics prevailed over their concern. On the LR side, we see good resistance from elected officials in the blue wave of 2014.
The RN wins in the 1st round at Fréjus…
We have seen, in Europeans, that the National Rally is doing very well in Fréjus, Béziers, or other cities it controls. But this is part of a broader context, the very good resistance of outgoing mayors, whether they are RN, LR or PS, Martine Aubry in Lille, Hidalgo in Paris. There is a bonus for the outgoing mayor, these elections were perceived by the French as local elections. Whereas for LREM - when he was present - the results are poor.
Political Newsletter
Every day, the political news seen by Le ParisienI'm registering
Your email address is collected by Le Parisien to allow you to receive our news and commercial offers. Find out more
Is this a warning to the president?
Yes. It has great difficulty for this party to find local relays that will allow it to face local deadlines next year, the departmental and regional.
And Le Havre?
The second round will be difficult, if it takes place. There is a national dimension here, given the Prime Minister's personality. The start of a local censorship motion. If he was beaten, it would be extremely difficult for the President to keep him.
What will happen if the 2nd round is canceled?
The most reasonable position would be to act that the mayors elected in the first round, very numerous, remain so. For the others, the counters should be reset to zero. Start again in the logic of municipal, with the two towers. The voting system is a whole. It would be completely eccentric to postpone only the second. In October, in November, we will see ...
This will leave traces on the quinquennium? Macron still has his hand?
Yes, because we are in a presidential regime, and because in the major crisis we are going through, everyone is turning to public power. There is a strong expectation vis-à-vis the president and the government. The French, in the field of health, the economy, social solidarity, expect a lot from power. The pressure on Macron has never been greater. He has no right to failure.
VIDEO. Municipal: Edouard Philippe evokes a possible postponement of the second round