The door ajar by the International Olympic Committee to a postponement of the Tokyo Olympics (scheduled from July 24 to August 9), due to the Covid-19 pandemic, opens the way to an intense period of negotiation and consultations between the different stakeholders (IOC, Japanese government, Japanese organizing committee, broadcasters, partners, international federations, National Federations, National Olympic Committees, athletes…) of a colossal project to hope to be able to deliver the Games to another period. Without much breakage. Since outright cancellation is not "on the agenda", as Thomas Bach recalled in the letter to athletes published on Sunday, three hypotheses emerge. The first seems to be the least restrictive and the least penalizing. State of play.
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The Olympics ... In the fall of 2020
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The dynamic is not interrupted. The event remains delivered and contested in the year initially planned. The temperature and humidity would be lower (the marathon and walking events were, in the initial program, relocated to Sapporo in order to limit the difficulty for the athletes). The Olympic sports calendars would not be affected. The qualification tests or solutions should be able to spread out and be organized (57% of the athletes are currently qualified for Tokyo). It is the least expensive fallback solution. And that would be a nod to the 1964 Games that Tokyo had organized from October 10 to 24.
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The fall season could let pass and suffer from typhoons. The Rugby World Cup had, last fall, been forced to cancel several matches, including the group match which was to pit France against England. And more delicate, the Covid-19 pandemic may not be completely eradicated.
The Olympics ... In a year
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We're just changing boxes. The device is in place. The locations and the season are known.
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The calendars of Olympic sports have long planted major events (the World Athletics Championships from August 6 to 15 in Eugene, in the United States; the world swimming championships from July 16 to August 1, … Fukuoka in Japan) around which the season will revolve. What about the 57% of qualified athletes? The consequences for the immobilization of the Olympic Village and other buildings dedicated to the Olympic Games, as on the commitments made with hoteliers, would not be without posing serious problems. As will be the case for the Olympic and Paralympic Games in Paris in 2024, the Olympic Village must, after the extinction of the flame, quickly transform into accommodation (11,000 in Tokyo).
The Olympics ... In two years
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“2022 would be more comfortable. We would include the Tokyo Summer Games (after) the Winter Games (Beijing), it would be a kind of festive Olympic year ", poses Carl Lewis, the former God of the stadium (10 Olympic medals, including 9 Golden). Summer and winter Olympic Games coexisted in the calendar until the Olympic Games in 1992. That year Albertville and Barcelona had seen the flame burn. Then, the alternation had been set up.
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At the fragile scale of a career, two years represent an unknown world. An anxiety for the athletes. The entire orchestration of the qualification phases should be thoroughly overhauled, some athletes, reached by the age limit would find themselves "out of the Games". Tokyo should find a way to freeze Olympic venues and architecture for two years. A colossal challenge, extremely expensive. Paris 2024, in this domino game, would find itself sandwiched between these Tokyo Olympics and those of Los Angeles (2028).
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