[Analysis of epidemic situation] Confirmed diagnosis doubled to more than 400 within six days Infectious disease experts warn not to relax

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Written by: Chen Qianting

2020-03-26 15:20

The number of confirmed cases of new-type coronavirus pneumonia in Hong Kong continues to increase. As of yesterday (25th), there were a total of 411 confirmed cases (including 410 confirmed cases and 1 suspected case). The increase in the past week was more significant than the previous one, with an average increase of 30 cases per day. Among them, 44 cases and 48 cases were recorded in two days. Analyzing the trend of the epidemic, starting from the first confirmed diagnosis on January 22 and the official announcement by the government the next day, the number of confirmed diagnoses exceeded 100 after 39 days; however, from 100 to 200 cases, the difference was only 17 days; 200 to 400 cases doubled, and only the difference 6th.

The chairman of the Infectious Diseases Advisory Committee of the Medical Association and the physician of the respiratory system, Liang Zichao, estimated that the increase may be related to the fact that Hong Kong has not stopped outbound travel in early March. Some people who departed as scheduled in early March were diagnosed after returning to Hong Kong recently. Events in the community led to group cases. He said that in the event of a slackness, there might be a spread caused by imported cases in Hong Kong within a few days.

The new pneumonia epidemic broke out in Wuhan, China last December, and developed into March. The epidemic has spread to the whole world. The WHO announced on March 11 that the epidemic was a global pandemic. Analyzing the trend of the epidemic, starting from the first confirmed diagnosis on January 22 and the official announcement by the government the next day, the number of confirmed diagnoses exceeded 100 after 39 days; however, from 100 to 200 cases, the difference was only 17 days; 200 to 400 cases doubled, and only the difference 6th.

After reviewing the government's announcement, the Hong Kong government urged the public on March 8 to reduce unnecessary travel, but only issued red travel warnings to most overseas regions on March 17 and required overseas quarantine compulsory quarantine on the 14th. As of the 25th, the quarantine area covers people entering from Macao and Taiwan, and all transit services will be stopped on the same day.

The data shows that the week after the Hong Kong Government announced the red outbound travel alert, the average number of diagnosed cases each day has increased by more than 30. Among them, a single-day increase of 48 cases was recorded on March 20, of which 35 people have travel history, including 8 International students.

Chairman of the Infectious Diseases Advisory Committee of the Medical Association Liang Zichao. (Profile picture)

It is expected that Hong Kong people will travel as scheduled to drive up the number of recent confirmed cases

The Chairman of the Infectious Diseases Advisory Committee of the Medical Association Liang Zichao pointed out that the proportion of foreign students diagnosed is not too high. It is estimated that the increase is related to the fact that the Hong Kong government did not stop outbound travel at the beginning of the month. Some tour groups started as early as March. , Some people are active in the community, go to work, etc., causing related group cases to appear one after another.

As for the international students who returned to Hong Kong before the quarantine requirements came into effect, Liang Zichao said that some people had symptoms before arriving in Hong Kong. It is expected that people with less local cultures wore masks and the local young people had a higher infection rate. He reminded the public not to be lax, otherwise a new round of transmission triggered by imported cases may occur.

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The doctor is warming in the spring: it is expected that it will have little effect on the virus transmission rate

The temperature rise near the port of Japan may help shorten the survival time of the virus, but Liang Zichao pointed out that the new type of coronavirus has remained in the environment for several times longer than the influenza virus. "Want to fight the day" waiting for the virus to disappear with the beginning of spring, we should continue to pay attention to personal hygiene and take precautionary measures.

The new crown pneumonia epidemic is a global pandemic, and the epidemic is severe overseas. Many Hong Kong people have returned to Hong Kong to avoid the disease. (Photo by Liang Pengwei)

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