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[Analysis of epidemic situation] Confirmed diagnosis doubled to more than 400 within six days

2020-03-26T10:42:40.753Z

The number of confirmed cases of new-type coronavirus pneumonia in Hong Kong continues to increase. As of yesterday (25th), there were a total of 411 confirmed cases (including 410 confirmed cases and 1 suspected case). The increase in the past week was more significant than the previous one, with an average increase of 30 cases per day. Among them, 44 cases and 48 cases were recorded in two days. Analyzing the trend of the epidemic, starting from the first confirmed diagnosis on January 22 and the official announcement by the government the next day, the number of confirmed diagnoses exceeded 100 after 39 days; however, from 100 to 200 cases, the difference was only 17 days; 200 to 400 cases doubled, and only the difference 6th. Deputy Secretary for Food and Health Xu Deyi said at a press conference today (26th) that as of March 25, Hong Kong had increased 202 confirmed cases in the past week, an increase of nearly double, and urged the public to work together to minimize travel. The chairman of the Infectious Diseases Advisory Committee of the Medical Association and the physician of the respiratory system, Liang Zichao, estimated that the increase may be related to the fact that Hong Kong has not stopped outbound travel in early March. Some people who departed as scheduled in early March were diagnosed after returning to Hong Kong recently. Events in the community led to group cases. He said that in the event of a slackness, there might be a spread caused by imported cases in Hong Kong within a few days.



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Written by: Chen Qianting, Lao Minyi

2020-03-26 15:20

Last updated: 2020-03-26 18:32

The number of confirmed cases of new-type coronavirus pneumonia in Hong Kong continues to increase. As of yesterday (25th), there were a total of 411 confirmed cases (including 410 confirmed cases and 1 suspected case). The increase in the past week was more significant than the previous one, with an average increase of 30 cases per day. Among them, 44 cases and 48 cases were recorded in two days. Analyzing the trend of the epidemic, starting from the first confirmed diagnosis on January 22 and the official announcement by the government the next day, the number of confirmed diagnoses exceeded 100 after 39 days; however, from 100 to 200 cases, the difference was only 17 days; 200 to 400 cases doubled, and only the difference 6th.

Deputy Secretary for Food and Health Xu Deyi said at a press conference today (26th) that as of March 25, Hong Kong had increased 202 confirmed cases in the past week, an increase of nearly double, and urged the public to work together to minimize travel.

The chairman of the Infectious Diseases Advisory Committee of the Medical Association and the physician of the respiratory system, Liang Zichao, estimated that the increase may be related to the fact that Hong Kong has not stopped outbound travel in early March. Some people who departed as scheduled in early March were diagnosed after returning to Hong Kong recently. Events in the community led to group cases. He said that in the event of a slackness, there might be a spread caused by imported cases in Hong Kong within a few days.

▼ Click to view interactive data ▼

The new pneumonia epidemic broke out in Wuhan, China last December, and developed into March. The epidemic has spread to the whole world. The WHO announced on March 11 that the epidemic was a global pandemic. Analyzing the trend of the epidemic, starting from the first confirmed diagnosis on January 22 and the official announcement by the government the next day, the number of confirmed diagnoses exceeded 100 after 39 days; however, from 100 to 200 cases, the difference was only 17 days; 200 to 400 cases doubled, and only the difference 6th.

After reviewing the government's announcement, the Hong Kong government urged the public on March 8 to reduce unnecessary travel, but only issued red travel warnings to most overseas regions on March 17 and required overseas quarantine compulsory quarantine on the 14th. As of the 25th, the quarantine area covers people entering from Macao and Taiwan, and all transit services will be stopped on the same day.

The data shows that the week after the Hong Kong Government announced the red outbound travel alert, the average number of diagnosed cases each day has increased by more than 30. Among them, a single-day increase of 48 cases was recorded on March 20, of which 35 people have travel history, including 8 International students.

Xu Deyi said that the number of newly confirmed 202 cases in Hong Kong in the past week was almost doubled, and the situation was worrying. (Photo by Luo Junhao)

Xu Deyi: The situation is worrying and we must endure together

Xu Deyi, Deputy Secretary for the Food and Health Bureau, said at a press conference at the Centre for Health Protection at 4.30 pm that the number of newly confirmed 202 cases in Hong Kong in the past week was nearly doubled. The situation is worrying. There are no clear sources of infection in many cases. Coupled with the sharp increase in the number of confirmed overseas cases starting in March, we stress that the public must not relax, and call on everyone to be patient, reduce outings and parties, and maintain social distance. He also pointed out that 35 people who returned to Hong Kong from outside the country violated the quarantine order yesterday, and all of them have been sent to the quarantine center. Prosecutions are not ruled out, and people who accept compulsory quarantine are required to strictly observe them.

Asked whether the authorities intended to shorten the restaurant's business hours, Xu Deyi pointed out that in the past, there were places where confirmed patients gathered, such as bars, where citizens would stay for a long time and have social behaviors, such as removing masks and talking. The situation deserves attention. He also said that the Chief Executive stated earlier that he would study different methods to reduce the flow of people and listen to the industry ’s voice. Of course, if the industry has corresponding measures, it is certainly not welcome. For example, the industry has adjusted the operating hours and believes that the two can be carried out in two tracks. The relevant legislative details will be discussed by the government. Announce as soon as possible.

Chairman of the Infectious Diseases Advisory Committee of the Medical Association Liang Zichao. (Profile picture)

It is expected that Hong Kong people will travel as scheduled to drive up the number of recent confirmed cases

The Chairman of the Infectious Diseases Advisory Committee of the Medical Association Liang Zichao pointed out that the proportion of foreign students diagnosed is not too high. It is estimated that the increase is related to the fact that the Hong Kong government did not stop outbound travel at the beginning of the month. Some tour groups started as early as March. , Some people are active in the community, go to work, etc., causing related group cases to appear one after another.

As for the international students who returned to Hong Kong before the quarantine requirements came into effect, Liang Zichao said that some people had symptoms before arriving in Hong Kong. It is expected that people with less local cultures wore masks and the local young people had a higher infection rate. He reminded the public not to be lax, otherwise a new round of transmission triggered by imported cases may occur.

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The doctor is warming in the spring: it is expected that it will have little effect on the virus transmission rate

The temperature rise near the port of Japan may help shorten the survival time of the virus, but Liang Zichao pointed out that the new type of coronavirus has remained in the environment for several times longer than the influenza virus. "Want to fight the day" waiting for the virus to disappear with the beginning of spring, we should continue to pay attention to personal hygiene and take precautionary measures.

The new crown pneumonia epidemic is a global pandemic, and the epidemic is severe overseas. Many Hong Kong people have returned to Hong Kong to avoid the disease. (Photo by Liang Pengwei)

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New crown pneumonia

Source: hk1

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