As we knew, the economic impact of the coronavirus epidemic promises to be massive. INSEE has just confirmed this: in a first estimate published this Thursday, national statisticians report that the loss of economic activity is currently estimated at " 35% compared to a normal situation ". In other words, " the loss of" instantaneous "activity is estimated at around a third ", a considerable shock to the economy, which allows " 65% " of activity to run normally. The losses are particularly strong in industry except agrifood (-52% of activity), construction (-89%) and market services (-36%). Agriculture and the food industry are not spared either, losing 4% of activity compared to normal.
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The director of INSEE, who spoke in the preamble to the study, expressed his reservations about this estimate, for two reasons. First, the health emergency prevails over the economic aspect. Then, " a statistician is reluctant to give a result of which he is not sufficiently assured ". However, it is difficult to provide precise figures in the current context: the estimate is therefore " fragile " and will probably be revised in the future, the situation changing daily.
In addition, household consumption should also collapse, according to INSEE estimates based on feedback from the various federations. In total, the drop in consumption should amount to more than a third (-35%), and if the food industry is doing well, thanks to the massive purchases of confined citizens (+ 6% activity by compared to normal), this is not the case for many other sectors that speak the language: " Some consumption expenses have been reduced to a minimum, between -100% and -90% (transport equipment, textiles, clothing ) ”, Reports INSEE.
This marked drop in consumption, which remains the French driver and was to protect France's growth in 2020 compared to its European partners, should greatly reduce growth forecasts for the year. The institute figures the drop in growth caused by a month of confinement at 3 points of annual GDP, a forecast that will double if the confinement is twice as long. The longer the duration, the more logically limited the prospects.
More information to come ...