[New Crown Pneumonia] Lin Chaoying: Hong Kong people self-discipline successfully eased the epidemic situation lest medical overload

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Author: Zheng Qiuling

2020-03-29 00:58

The epidemic of new-type coronavirus pneumonia (commonly known as Wuhan pneumonia) in Hong Kong is severe. Former Observatory Director Lin Chaoying mentioned on his personal blog on Saturday (28th) that the total number of confirmed diagnoses in Hong Kong has doubled in the past week. Fortunately, most of the people in Hong Kong have worked together to stay at home and increase social distance. The spread of cases was significantly suppressed, and the case doubling rate was extended to about one week, which eased the situation. Otherwise, the rate of increase in the number of patients infected by Hong Kong people since returning from overseas epidemic areas was estimated. It could affect 10,000 people on April 3 and is now reduced to 1,100. .

However, Lin Chaoying reminded that there are only about 1,400 isolated beds in Hong Kong. Even if it only doubles once a week, it will burst out in two weeks. It persuades the public that "need to squeeze more strength and create another miracle, and strive to push the cumulative total of extrapolation to the push down".

It is almost impossible to reduce from "10,000" to "One Thousand". Hong Kong people have done it within a week. We have to give Hong Kong people a big applause.

Former Observatory Director Lin Chaoying pointed out that, fortunately, the majority of the people of Hong Kong have worked together to significantly suppress transmission. (Profile picture)

Means that the number of confirmed diagnoses doubles as soon as 3 days

Lin Chaoying's blog shared data analysis. As of last Friday (20th), due to the large number of Hong Kong people returning from overseas epidemic areas in the early stage, the number of infected patients increased at a rate of approximately three days, and was extrapolated for two weeks (April 3 (Day) can reach 10,000, the medical system is almost overloaded today, and the situation is emerging in New York. Fortunately, all citizens in Hong Kong have cooperated since one week, actively staying at home more, increasing social distance, and successfully suppressing the spread of the virus. "Extending the doubling time to about one week has eased the situation. The latest extrapolated figures are in April. It was lowered to 1,100 on the 3rd, and to 2,300 on April 10 two weeks later. "

The problem is not completely solved ... There are only about 1,400 isolation beds in Hong Kong ... It will burst in two weeks ... We need to squeeze more strength and create another miracle ...

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Lin Chaoying emphasized that "the problem has not been completely resolved, but at least we have spent more time to plan for the response." He pointed out that because there are only about 1,400 isolation beds in Hong Kong, even if it is only doubled once a week, it will burst out in two weeks. The medical system It can't stand it. "We need to squeeze more strength and create another miracle, and strive to push the cumulative total of extrapolation downwards. It is best to be no more than 1,500 to 2,000."

He also called for a broader world view, paying attention to Italy, Spain, Germany, and France, which are still hot, and the United States and the United Kingdom, which are in the early stages of the outbreak. They are increasing at a rate of about three days and are concerned about the sharp deterioration of the Turkish epidemic.

▼ Epidemic prevention banned more than four people to close multiple facilities ▼

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