ASviS, the economic crisis is damaging sustainability

(ANSA) - ROME, MARCH 30 - Coronavirus is an obstacle on the road to sustainable development. ASviS analyzed the effects of the pandemic crisis on each of the 17 goals of the United Nations 2030 Agenda. And, in many cases, the impact is negative, starting from poverty and decent work, but also because of gender inequalities and administrative efficiency.
"This analysis belies, once and for all, the idea that an economic crisis is 'good for' sustainable development as defined by the 2030 Agenda which includes the economic, social, environmental and institutional dimensions", stresses the ASviS spokesman, Enrico Giovannini. Giovannini appeals to the government and parliament because the legislative provisions under discussion are "always accompanied by an evaluation, albeit qualitative, of their expected impact on the various dimensions of sustainable development".
In this regard, the Alliance has also made an assessment of the Cura Italia decree in which, it is explained, most of the articles can be traced back to "Protection" measures, measures with effects limited in time to face the emergency. "Some of these (for example, distance learning or agile work) - they suggest - should then be made continuous over time to face future shocks and initiate a change in the sense of transformative resilience".
Regarding the assessment of the impact of the Coronavirus crisis on the indicators of sustainable development in 2020, ASviS has made an investigation assuming a scenario in which restrictions on the mobility of people and the performance of economic activities end by the end of June - Goal 1 - ASviS expects an increase in poverty in all its dimensions, despite government intervention.
The forced cessation of non-essential productive activities and the increase in uncertainty will lead to the closure of businesses and the loss of jobs, reducing incomes and increasing the level of poverty overall.
- Goal 2 - The indicator on good nutrition is expected to deteriorate because the reduction in financial resources could also reflect on the quality of the food consumed.
- Goal 3 - Despite the increase in mortality due to the pandemic, ASviS does not foresee any worsening of overall mortality rates. Instead, a decrease in the mortality and injury of road accidents is expected, due to the drastic reduction in traffic during the crisis. - Goal 4 - The closure of schools for a prolonged period risks having negative effects on the teaching capacity of the school system and, consequently, on the level of competence of the students. - Goal 5 - Women with preschool children will be more affected by the crisis than those without, due to the more fragile condition they face, while it has not been possible to evaluate the overall effect of the crisis on the ratio of female employment rate and masculine.
- Goal 6 - No substantial effects are expected on the availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation.
- Goal 7 - The Alliance estimates an increase in the share of renewable energies due to the decrease in primary and final energy consumption, rather than a greater production of energy from renewable sources. On the other hand, it is impossible to evaluate the direction of energy efficiency.
- Goal 8 - On the issues of decent work and economic growth, the effects of the health emergency should have a particularly negative impact on the whole and on all individual indicators. The prolonged blockade of most economic activities will lead to a drop in GDP, employment and a simultaneous increase in unemployment, in the involuntary part-time quota and in the NEETs. Also for the productivity of the work it could decrease for the limitations imposed by the Government to contain the epidemic.
- Goal 9 - Asvis expects that the share of the added value of the manufacturing industry in the total economy may increase and that the emissive intensity of the added value will worsen, given that the industries in activity are the most energetic and with a quotient higher emission. In addition, the use of public transport risks decreasing, even in the phase of returning to normal due to prudence or fear. - Goal 10 - Asvis also assesses an overall worsening for the issue of inequalities, which will particularly affect the weaker sections of the population, such as that of foreigners, in line with what happened also in the crisis that started in 2008.
- Goal 11 - A decrease in urban pollution is expected due to the blocking of economic activities and restrictions on the movement of people, while no effect on structural indicators such as unauthorized construction, the availability of urban green spaces and the km km offered by the tpl. - Goal 12 - The analysis anticipates an overall reduction in the consumption of resources due to the decrease in production activities and an increase in the consumption of material compared to GDP, because the industries with the largest material consumption rate remained active. - Goal 13 - The interruption of the production activities foreseen by the Government to face the health emergency will lead to a general improvement of the indicators related to climate change. In particular, there will be a sharp reduction in CO2 emissions.
- Goal 14 - The crisis is not expected to have a significant impact on the oceans and seas.
- Goal 15 - Blocking circulation and production activities could have beneficial effects on biodiversity in 2020, while no impact is expected on indicators such as land cover and fragmentation.
- Goal 16 - Asvis expects, by 2020, an improvement in the indicators relating to the number of crimes due to the limitations imposed on freedom of movement. Measures to contain the contagion, by slowing down the work of the courts, should lead to an extension of the judicial times of civil and criminal proceedings. Finally, an increase in citizens' confidence in law enforcement agencies already appears to be manifesting.
- Goal 17 - Finally, the effects of the crisis on international cooperation are not expected, since the funds for Public Development Aid for 2020 have already been allocated. "We believe - is the ASviS message reiterated by Giovannini - that a strong response to the economic crisis can also be oriented to the ecological transition and the fight against inequalities, because the condition in which the country and the world found itself a few months ago was however unsustainable from all points of view ".