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The key to mitigating the effects of the coronavirus 0:57
(CNN) - A large-scale study found that early care measures, such as social distancing and severe restrictions on the movement of people, have been critical in slowing down the spread of the coronavirus and have already saved tens of thousands of lives in All Europe.
READ: Social distancing requires a minimum distance of 2 meters (or 6 feet): 10 examples to get it right
Scientists at Imperial College London studied measurements in eleven European countries and concluded that "together they had a substantial impact on transmission." They estimate "that prevention in the 11 countries will have avoided 59,000 deaths until March 31."
Researchers at Imperial College estimate that 38,000 deaths have been avoided in Italy (as of March 31, it is almost four times the number of registered deaths); and in Spain 16,000, compared to a situation where no restrictions had been implemented.
Illustration picture shows a digital panel asking to keep social distance, in a metro station, Brussels, Monday 30 March 2020. The measures announced on March 18th by the National Security Council to avoid the spread of the Covid-19 will remain two weeks longer untill April 19th. BELGA PHOTO THIERRY ROGE (Photo by THIERRY ROGE / BELGA MAG / AFP via Getty Images)
In the case of Italy, they say that "despite mounting pressure on health systems, interventions have prevented a healthcare catastrophe."
The researchers issued warnings against loose and relaxed restrictions, saying that "many more deaths will be avoided by ensuring the restrictions are severe until transmission drops to low levels."
The Imperial College group also believes that the number of positively identified coronavirus cases is likely much less than the overall infection rate. "We estimate that there have been far more infections than are currently reported," they say, "due to the focus on testing in hospital settings rather than in the community."
In Italy, their results suggest that 5.9 million people had been infected as of March 28, or 9.8% of the population. In Spain, they believe that 15% of the population has been infected.
The study notes that "many interventions have only occurred recently, and their effects have not yet been fully observed due to the delay between infection and death." Germany, for example, is estimated to have one of the lowest “attack rates” at 0.7%, with 600,000 people infected. But it is at an earlier stage in the spread of the coronavirus than Spain or Italy.
In the eleven countries studied, researchers estimate an average "attack" or infection rate of 4.9%, which they say implies "that populations in Europe are not close to herd immunity."
But they come to a note of hope in their conclusions, saying: “We cannot say with certainty that current measures have controlled the epidemic in Europe; however, if current trends continue, there are reasons for optimism. ”
Social distancing
