"Munich was lucky": top virologist analyzes the corona crisis

The first coronavirus case in Germany was registered in Munich at the end of January. That seems a long time ago. Virologist Prof. Alexander Kekulé already warned of a corona crisis.

• Prof. Alexander Kekulé (University of Halle) is in great demand as an expert in the corona crisis.
• The virologist talks about the horror scenario in Italy, the corona crisis in Germany and Munich.
• In addition to the background, the scientist explains why special corona protective measures, such as masks, are important in everyday life.
• Here you will find the basic facts about the corona virus *. You can also find current Corona case numbers in Germany as a map *.
  

Munich - He is one of those leading scientists who had warned very early about the approaching corona tsunami: Already on January 22 - over two months ago - Professor Dr. Dr. Alexander Kekulé (61) extensive dressing tests and controls when entering Germany. Five days later, Bavarian Minister of Health Melanie Huml reported the first case in Germany, an employee of the Webasto company in the Starnberg district. A wave of death has long been rolling over the world. Nevertheless, public life was only shut down in mid-March , when our country was already firmly strangled by the virus. Could our politicians have prevented this development? And what must be done now to avoid the horror scenario similar to that in Italy? "It is incredibly difficult to make decisions that will change our lives," says Prof. Kekulé. In our large report, the top virologist from the Halle University Clinic explains the relationships:

1. The mass extinction in Italy

No country currently hits Covid-19 as hard as Italy - and especially Lombardy. “You just noticed the wave of infections far too late. In Italy there have probably been over 1000 cases before the authorities have even dealt with the issue, ”says Kekulé.

The fact that there are so many people dying from lung disease in comparison to all other countries is due to the high number of unreported cases. "I assume that up to ten times as many people are infected with the virus in Italy as is officially known."

The restricted areas , in which the virus had initially exploded, were also not extended far enough . “The regions that were badly affected were actually much larger, but only a much too small part of the high-risk area was recognized,” explains Kekulé. In addition, many Italians live in large families - with grandma and grandpa under one roof. Naturally, there is a higher risk of infection here.

The number of particularly vulnerable older people is higher in Italy than in Germany. "When so many critically ill patients had to be hospitalized in one fell swoop, the Italian health system quickly reached its limit," says Kekulé. For comparison: in Germany - based on the number of inhabitants - there are two and a half times as many intensive care beds as in Italy and there are also significantly more ventilators.

Another reason for the high death rate in the boot state could also be found in the system of mortality statistics . In many cases it is unclear whether the often very old Italian victims actually died from Covid-19 or not from the consequences of a previous illness such as serious heart problems or lung problems.

2. The development in Munich

There are many cases in the state capital, but so far there have been comparatively few deaths. "The Bavarians were simply lucky," says Kekulé, "the bomb could have gone off in Munich and the surrounding area, for example." His explanation: There are also many companies in the Isar metropolitan region, which - like many companies in the greater Milan area - have close contacts maintain to China. One example is called Webasto. Employees of the Stockdorf company contracted a Chinese colleague. "When the woman was out in Germany, she was already taking antipyretic medication. Fortunately, however, she informed the company relatively quickly. "

The top virologist praised the fact that the so-called Webasto cluster * - all those infected came to Schwabing Hospital at the time - was largely thanks to the Munich health authority: "How meticulously the agency traced the contacts of the infected is one Example of successful crisis management . It was really a masterpiece. "

But the truth also belongs: if the highly infectious Chinese woman was not a businesswoman, but a city tourist, for example, then the spread of the virus would hardly have been controllable. "I don't think that a sick vacationer would have called the Munich health department on Schwanthaler Strasse as a precautionary measure after her return to China. There were no entry controls at the airport at this point in time, although I had warned them long ago, ”criticizes Kekulé.

You can follow current developments about the Corona crisis in Munich * here.

3. Söder's strategy in the corona crisis

In Kekulé's eyes, Dr. Markus Söder reacts late to the warnings related to the pandemic, but the top virologist also shows understanding for the Prime Minister : “You can't vote me out, but Mr Söder can. As a scientist, I'm just a chess player who tells politicians which move I would take next in their place. But Mr. Söder is not the King of Bavaria, who rules authoritarian as he wants. He also has to weigh up various aspects, such as economic interests. And he has to find majorities for such severe restrictions on freedom rights - not only in the political bodies, but also among the population. ”

Against this background, Söder did a good job, Kekulé continued. "He still drives the right line to this day: On the one hand he enforces clear exit restrictions, on the other hand he gives people the freedom to go out into the fresh air. This is important."

Kekulé replies to the criticism that the Bavarian Prime Minister was unnecessarily pushed ahead with the restrictions: “I think it is highly questionable whether the other federal states would have swiftly swung into the right direction without Söders going it alone. In this respect, Söder has presented a blueprint for the other countries. "
An exit restriction applies in Bavaria due to the corona virus - now until April 19. Söder extended the measures on March 30.

4. The chance to relax soon in Bavaria

The top virologist estimates that the restrictions will not work until mid-April at the earliest . " It takes two to three weeks for an effect to appear , and then we need at least another week to collect and evaluate all the important data," explains Kekulé. “In this respect, I personally do not believe that schools and daycare centers in Bayen can reopen immediately after the Easter holidays. If we are lucky and the number of infections declines significantly, we can start to relax a week after the end of the holiday. ”He could only ask the population to keep their feet still for so long. This also applies to Bavaria's Minister of Economic Affairs Hubert Aiwanger , who is pressing for the restrictions to be relaxed soon.

5. The critical phase after the exit stop

The scientist has presented a concept for this. At its core is Smart Distancing (i.e. keeping your distance wisely) as a replacement for the current exit restrictions. The idea behind it: start up everyday life in society again and take effective protective measures. This includes a whole package of measures: "It would be particularly important that people who do not live together strictly observe a minimum distance of two meters ." In addition, risk groups - for example in old people's homes and nursing homes - need special protection.

"In order to interrupt the infection chains, the capacities of the existing examination procedures have to be increased at high speed and rapid tests have to be developed . The people who are infected with Covid-19 are usually only infectious for a few days. With a quick test for at home - similar to a pregnancy - everyone could test themselves anonymously and voluntarily isolate themselves with a positive result. From a scientific point of view, producing such a test is not rocket science, ”emphasizes Kekulé.

The encouraging thing about his suggestion: In the future, it would not even be necessary to avoid any Covid-19 infection outside the risk groups. "Even if we managed to avoid only two thirds of the infections, the epidemic would soon be over."

6. The dangers and protective measures in everyday life

In addition, the virologist advocates that everyone should wear a protective mask when in close contact with other people. "A simple surgical mask is enough - and if necessary, a simple cloth," says Prof. Kekulé. "Scientific data from Hong Kong, among others, show that even simple masks not only protect other people from infection, but also the wearer himself."

Here again the comparison of masks / no masks as a graphic. But it is not quite that simple because the successes in Southeast Asia against #coronavirus have other reasons. My suggestion for #smartdistancing goes beyond that. https://t.co/dfIv8RsVdy

The background: Corona is mainly transmitted through fine droplets . However, they do not only arise when coughing, but also when speaking. Afterwards, however, they have to get on the mucous membranes that are in the nose, mouth and eyes. "This can largely prevent a mask - ideally in combination with simple glasses", explains the virologist. In the future, he plans to promote this simple protective measure. If you can no longer get a mask, you can make such a protection yourself from old cotton t-shirts or bed sheets.

However, there is nothing to be said against walks and outdoor sports - provided the minimum distance of two meters is observed. On the contrary: “Exercising fresh pleasure is important from a physical as well as a psychological point of view”, emphasizes Kekulé - and at the same time warns of exaggerated panic: “It is extremely common to be infected by a jogger who walks by on the other side of the street unlikely."

Coronavirus - self-made protective masks.

© dpa / Sven Hoppe

7. The consequences for our everyday life

A relaxation of the restrictions must be well thought out. "You can imagine it like braking hard by car. You should only readjust gently with the steering wheel when the speed has slowed down significantly. ”In other words, translated: first, do not drive up the entire economy , but gradually individual areas. In addition, each individual has an even greater responsibility than before. "It can no longer be a casual sin, for example, if you send your children to school or kindergarten coughing and feverish," warned Prof. Kekulé.

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Merkur.de and tz.de are part of the nationwide Ippen-Digital editors network.