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5 tips to prepare for the arrival of a hurricane 1:07
(CNN) - Sixteen named storms, including eight hurricanes, are expected for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, according to early predictions released Thursday by experts from Colorado State University.
Four of the hurricanes will become major Category 3 to 5 storms, with sustained winds of at least 178 km / h, indicate projections for the season from June 1 to November 30.
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The chance of at least one major hurricane landing in 2020 along the United States coast is 69%, compared to an average of 52% in the last century, the researchers said. There is a 95% probability - the average is 84% - that at least one hurricane this year will make landfall in the United States.
"The last season with four or more major hurricanes was the record year of 2017 that caused damage and saw Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria," said CNN meteorologist Brandon Miller. "They all caused significant damage in the United States and in the Caribbean."
Six major hurricanes formed that year in the Atlantic basin. The seasonal average is 12 named storms, including six hurricanes.
Forecasts do not accurately predict where storms could occur, and the probability of making landfall anywhere is low.
"Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane to make landfall to make it an active season for them," researchers Philip Klotzbach, Michael M. Bell and Jhordanne Jones wrote in the report.
Confident in his prognosis
Above-normal activity was consistently predicted across all types of forecasts, Klotzbach said.
"This year, we used four different techniques to develop our forecasts," Klotzbach told CNN Weather. "And they all point to an active season."
The state of Colorado in its April predictions has not forecast four major hurricanes for a season since 2013, a year that did not perform as expected.
"I would say that this year we are quite confident," said Klotzbach, citing the lack of conditions for the El Niño phenomenon that can interfere with expectations.
When El Niño is present, it reduces hurricane activity in the Atlantic due to increased vertical wind shear: changes in wind speed and direction with height that prevent hurricanes from forming.
Average conditions create a more favorable environment for the development of tropical storms.
The latest #ElNino model prediction plume has the majority of models predicting ENSO-neutral conditions for peak Atlantic #hurricane season (August-October). Very few models call for #ElNino. El Nino typically reduces Atlantic hurricane activity via increased wind shear. pic.twitter.com/DMORw4ZXqq
- Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) March 19, 2020
"Also, the tropical Atlantic is quite a bit warmer than in recent years right now," said Klotzbach.
Sea surface temperature is one of the ingredients necessary to fuel hurricanes. The warmer the ocean, the more fuel available for storms.
Although four major hurricanes are forecast for this season, it does not necessarily mean that any will affect the United States coast.
"Two of the past three years have had major hurricanes in the United States (2017 and 2018)," said Miller. "Before that, there was a 12-year drought without a single major hurricane anywhere in the country (from Hurricane Wilma in 2005 to Hurricane Harvey in 2017)."
"The last major hurricane to hit the United States was Hurricane Michael in 2018," he said.
Forecasting so far in advance can be accurate
The models are based on 40 years of data and conditions, including sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, vertical wind shear levels, and the El Niño phenomenon.
April is when experts can get a good first indication of what the conditions will be like during hurricane season.
"We discovered that there is too much uncertainty regarding the future state of both (El Niño) and the Atlantic before then," says Klotzbach.
Still, these statistical and dynamic models fail in a few years, the researchers clarified.
"Last year, we forecast an almost average hurricane season and ended up being a little more active than we thought," said Klotzbach.
His April 2019 forecast predicted five hurricanes for that year; six were observed. They predicted that two of them would be major hurricanes; three were observed.
His April forecast varied significantly from the total number of named storms in 2019: 13 were predicted, while 18 formed, though many were short-lived and weak.
This marks the 37th year that the university team has issued a seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecast. The official forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will be published in May.
The Colorado State Hurricane Investigation Team will also release updated forecasts on June 4, July 7, and August 6.
Hurricane season