Trump tweets, oil leaps spectacularly

President Donald Trump's verb, through tweets, has repeatedly demonstrated its unrivaled power in the markets. The mere mention, Thursday, by the President of the United States, of a forthcoming agreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia likely to reduce crude oil production by 15 million barrels per day made the price soar. By the end of the afternoon, a barrel of brent had soared more than 20%, unprecedented, in percentage, over a day. It is true that oil has collapsed since mid-January, from around $ 65 to $ 22. A fall provoked, on the one hand, by a price war launched by Russia and Saudi Arabia, preferring to defend their market shares and undermine the interests of American producers at higher costs, and, on the other hand, by
an unprecedented melting of demand under the effect of quasi-planetary confinement.

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The American president published his tweet after a phone call with Crown Prince Mohammed Ben Salman, aka MBS, the strongman of Saudi Arabia, the world's leading exporter of black gold. The New York real estate mogul, self-proclaimed king of the deal, assured that Riyadh and Moscow were on the verge of an agreement. The Kremlin, however, denied any talks between Vladimir Putin and MBS. And no date has been set for a meeting of OPEC +, this coalition of interests which brings together OPEC and eleven other producer countries led by Russia.

It does not matter that the agreement to reduce production is uncertain. The market is so nervous, the barrel has fallen so low that traders overreact at the slightest statement. It is true that faced with the oil overflow fueled by a drop in consumption which could reach 20 million barrels per day this month, Russia and Saudi Arabia, sprinklers watered, have suggested that they counted act to stabilize prices. In the meantime, Trump's magic will have operated and raised the barrel of brent to almost 30 dollars.